US20220101438A1

Machine Learning Portfolio Simulating and Optimizing Apparatuses, Methods and Systems

Claim Score by NHIP

Read claim 19, the broadest

Abstract

The Machine Learning Portfolio Simulating and Optimizing Apparatuses, Methods and Systems (“MLPO”) transforms machine learning simulation request, decision tree ensembles training request, expected returns calculation request, portfolio construction request, predefined scenario construction request, portfolio returns visualization request inputs via MLPO components into machine learning simulation response, decision tree ensembles training response, expected returns calculation response, portfolio construction response, predefined scenario construction response, portfolio returns visualization response outputs. A portfolio construction request configured to include a set of optimization parameters is obtained. A set of simulated market scenarios is generated using neural networks. A set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios is retrieved. Portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities are optimized to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return. The set of tradeable transactions is executed.

US20220101438A1, drawing sheet 1
Sheet 1 of 124

Term

14.8 yearsto projected expiry

Projected expiry 22 July 2041, counted from filing; an application has no term until it is granted.

  1. Priority and filed
  2. Published
  3. Today
  4. Projected expiry

19 claims: 4 independent, 15 dependent

  1. 1
    A machine learning portfolio generating apparatus, comprising:a memory;a component collection in the memory;a processor disposed in communication with the memory and configured to issue a plurality of processor-executable instructions from the component collection, the processor-executable instructions structured as: obtain, via at least one processor, a portfolio construction request datastructure, the portfolio construction request datastructure structured to include a set of optimization parameters including a universe of securities, a time period length, a conditional value at risk portion, a conditional value at risk threshold, a portfolio value amount;determine, via at least one processor, a set of simulated market scenarios associated with the time period length, the set of simulated market scenarios generated using a set of deep learning neural networks, each simulated market scenario in the set of simulated market scenarios structured to comprise a set of simulated market factor values;retrieve, via at least one processor, a set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios, each expected return in the set of expected returns configured as calculated for a security during a simulated market scenario using: the respective security's conditional Beta during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional Beta of the respective security, based on a first subset of the set of simulated market factor values, and the respective security's conditional default probability during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional default probability of the respective security, based on a second subset of the set of simulated market factor values;optimize, via at least one processor, portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities in accordance with the conditional value at risk portion, the conditional value at risk threshold, and the portfolio value amount, using the set of expected returns, to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return of an optimized portfolio;and execute, via at least one processor, the set of tradeable transactions to generate the optimized portfolio.
  2. 1
    A machine learning portfolio generating apparatus, comprising:a memory;a component collection in the memory;a processor disposed in communication with the memory and configured to issue a plurality of processor-executable instructions from the component collection, the processor-executable instructions structured as: obtain, via at least one processor, a portfolio construction request datastructure, the portfolio construction request datastructure structured to include a set of optimization parameters including a universe of securities, a time period length, a conditional value at risk portion, a conditional value at risk threshold, a portfolio value amount;determine, via at least one processor, a set of simulated market scenarios associated with the time period length, the set of simulated market scenarios generated using a set of deep learning neural networks, each simulated market scenario in the set of simulated market scenarios structured to comprise a set of simulated market factor values;retrieve, via at least one processor, a set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios, each expected return in the set of expected returns configured as calculated for a security during a simulated market scenario using: the respective security's conditional Beta during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional Beta of the respective security, based on a first subset of the set of simulated market factor values, and the respective security's conditional default probability during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional default probability of the respective security, based on a second subset of the set of simulated market factor values;optimize, via at least one processor, portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities in accordance with the conditional value at risk portion, the conditional value at risk threshold, and the portfolio value amount, using the set of expected returns, to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return of an optimized portfolio;and execute, via at least one processor, the set of tradeable transactions to generate the optimized portfolio.
  3. 17
    A machine learning portfolio generating processor-readable, non-transient medium, comprising processor-executable instructions structured as:obtain, via at least one processor, a portfolio construction request datastructure, the portfolio construction request datastructure structured to include a set of optimization parameters including a universe of securities, a time period length, a conditional value at risk portion, a conditional value at risk threshold, a portfolio value amount;determine, via at least one processor, a set of simulated market scenarios associated with the time period length, the set of simulated market scenarios generated using a set of deep learning neural networks, each simulated market scenario in the set of simulated market scenarios structured to comprise a set of simulated market factor values;retrieve, via at least one processor, a set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios, each expected return in the set of expected returns configured as calculated for a security during a simulated market scenario using: the respective security's conditional Beta during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional Beta of the respective security, based on a first subset of the set of simulated market factor values, and the respective security's conditional default probability during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional default probability of the respective security, based on a second subset of the set of simulated market factor values;optimize, via at least one processor, portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities in accordance with the conditional value at risk portion, the conditional value at risk threshold, and the portfolio value amount, using the set of expected returns, to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return of an optimized portfolio;and execute, via at least one processor, the set of tradeable transactions to generate the optimized portfolio.
  4. 17
    A machine learning portfolio generating processor-readable, non-transient medium, comprising processor-executable instructions structured as:obtain, via at least one processor, a portfolio construction request datastructure, the portfolio construction request datastructure structured to include a set of optimization parameters including a universe of securities, a time period length, a conditional value at risk portion, a conditional value at risk threshold, a portfolio value amount;determine, via at least one processor, a set of simulated market scenarios associated with the time period length, the set of simulated market scenarios generated using a set of deep learning neural networks, each simulated market scenario in the set of simulated market scenarios structured to comprise a set of simulated market factor values;retrieve, via at least one processor, a set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios, each expected return in the set of expected returns configured as calculated for a security during a simulated market scenario using: the respective security's conditional Beta during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional Beta of the respective security, based on a first subset of the set of simulated market factor values, and the respective security's conditional default probability during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional default probability of the respective security, based on a second subset of the set of simulated market factor values;optimize, via at least one processor, portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities in accordance with the conditional value at risk portion, the conditional value at risk threshold, and the portfolio value amount, using the set of expected returns, to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return of an optimized portfolio;and execute, via at least one processor, the set of tradeable transactions to generate the optimized portfolio.
  5. 18
    A machine learning portfolio generating processor-implemented system, comprising:means to process processor-executable instructions;means to issue processor-issuable instructions from a processor-executable component collection via the means to process processor-executable instructions, the processor-issuable instructions structured as: obtain, via at least one processor, a portfolio construction request datastructure, the portfolio construction request datastructure structured to include a set of optimization parameters including a universe of securities, a time period length, a conditional value at risk portion, a conditional value at risk threshold, a portfolio value amount;determine, via at least one processor, a set of simulated market scenarios associated with the time period length, the set of simulated market scenarios generated using a set of deep learning neural networks, each simulated market scenario in the set of simulated market scenarios structured to comprise a set of simulated market factor values;retrieve, via at least one processor, a set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios, each expected return in the set of expected returns configured as calculated for a security during a simulated market scenario using: the respective security's conditional Beta during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional Beta of the respective security, based on a first subset of the set of simulated market factor values, and the respective security's conditional default probability during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional default probability of the respective security, based on a second subset of the set of simulated market factor values;optimize, via at least one processor, portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities in accordance with the conditional value at risk portion, the conditional value at risk threshold, and the portfolio value amount, using the set of expected returns, to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return of an optimized portfolio;and execute, via at least one processor, the set of tradeable transactions to generate the optimized portfolio.
  6. 18
    A machine learning portfolio generating processor-implemented system, comprising:means to process processor-executable instructions;means to issue processor-issuable instructions from a processor-executable component collection via the means to process processor-executable instructions, the processor-issuable instructions structured as: obtain, via at least one processor, a portfolio construction request datastructure, the portfolio construction request datastructure structured to include a set of optimization parameters including a universe of securities, a time period length, a conditional value at risk portion, a conditional value at risk threshold, a portfolio value amount;determine, via at least one processor, a set of simulated market scenarios associated with the time period length, the set of simulated market scenarios generated using a set of deep learning neural networks, each simulated market scenario in the set of simulated market scenarios structured to comprise a set of simulated market factor values;retrieve, via at least one processor, a set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios, each expected return in the set of expected returns configured as calculated for a security during a simulated market scenario using: the respective security's conditional Beta during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional Beta of the respective security, based on a first subset of the set of simulated market factor values, and the respective security's conditional default probability during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional default probability of the respective security, based on a second subset of the set of simulated market factor values;optimize, via at least one processor, portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities in accordance with the conditional value at risk portion, the conditional value at risk threshold, and the portfolio value amount, using the set of expected returns, to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return of an optimized portfolio;and execute, via at least one processor, the set of tradeable transactions to generate the optimized portfolio.
  7. 19
    Broadest claimClaim Score 16, narrow(NHIP)A machine learning portfolio generating processor-implemented process, comprising executing processor-executable instructions to:obtain, via at least one processor, a portfolio construction request datastructure, the portfolio construction request datastructure structured to include a set of optimization parameters including a universe of securities, a time period length, a conditional value at risk portion, a conditional value at risk threshold, a portfolio value amount;determine, via at least one processor, a set of simulated market scenarios associated with the time period length, the set of simulated market scenarios generated using a set of deep learning neural networks, each simulated market scenario in the set of simulated market scenarios structured to comprise a set of simulated market factor values;retrieve, via at least one processor, a set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios, each expected return in the set of expected returns configured as calculated for a security during a simulated market scenario using: the respective security's conditional Beta during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional Beta of the respective security, based on a first subset of the set of simulated market factor values, and the respective security's conditional default probability during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional default probability of the respective security, based on a second subset of the set of simulated market factor values;optimize, via at least one processor, portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities in accordance with the conditional value at risk portion, the conditional value at risk threshold, and the portfolio value amount, using the set of expected returns, to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return of an optimized portfolio;and execute, via at least one processor, the set of tradeable transactions to generate the optimized portfolio.
  8. 19
    Broadest claimClaim Score 16, narrow(NHIP)A machine learning portfolio generating processor-implemented process, comprising executing processor-executable instructions to:obtain, via at least one processor, a portfolio construction request datastructure, the portfolio construction request datastructure structured to include a set of optimization parameters including a universe of securities, a time period length, a conditional value at risk portion, a conditional value at risk threshold, a portfolio value amount;determine, via at least one processor, a set of simulated market scenarios associated with the time period length, the set of simulated market scenarios generated using a set of deep learning neural networks, each simulated market scenario in the set of simulated market scenarios structured to comprise a set of simulated market factor values;retrieve, via at least one processor, a set of expected returns for securities in the universe of securities for the set of simulated market scenarios, each expected return in the set of expected returns configured as calculated for a security during a simulated market scenario using: the respective security's conditional Beta during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional Beta of the respective security, based on a first subset of the set of simulated market factor values, and the respective security's conditional default probability during the respective simulated market scenario, determined using a set of decision tree ensembles, trained to estimate conditional default probability of the respective security, based on a second subset of the set of simulated market factor values;optimize, via at least one processor, portfolio weights of securities in the universe of securities in accordance with the conditional value at risk portion, the conditional value at risk threshold, and the portfolio value amount, using the set of expected returns, to generate a set of tradeable transactions that maximize expected portfolio return of an optimized portfolio;and execute, via at least one processor, the set of tradeable transactions to generate the optimized portfolio.