System and method for prediction-calculating chemical substance emission amount

The present invention relates to a chemical substance emission prediction calculation system and method when a chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere measured at an atmospheric observation station shows an abnormally high concentration equal to or higher than a specified reference value, for example, an atmospheric simulation. , Applied in the fields of atmospheric chemical concentration calculation, environmental risk assessment, and civil health management.

When a chemical substance having a concentration higher than the standard value stipulated by law (abnormally high concentration) is detected by the Atmospheric Observation Bureau, there is no means in the prior art for predicting and calculating the emission amount of the emission source. Currently, in order to identify the causative emission source, the amount of chemical substances released from all the emission sources can be investigated, or the method of identifying the causative emission source based on past experience can be used. I have used it.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a conventional procedure for identifying an emission source, which has been performed when the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere is abnormally high.

That is, all the processes start from step M00. The start-up time of step M00 may be any fixed time or any time. The processing after step M01 is the processing for checking the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere of all atmospheric observation stations. Variable n that is an index of the observation point in step M01_rMSubstitute 1 for. Variable n in step M02_rMIs the number of atmospheric observation stations N_rJudge whether or not it is as follows. Number of atmospheric observation stations N_rIf the following, the process moves to step M03. Number of atmospheric observation stations N_rIf it is not the following, the investigation of all the observation stations is completed, so the process is moved to step M10 and the main routine is terminated. Number of atmospheric observation stations N in step M03_rMMeasured concentration C_r(n_rM) Is the reference value C_tJudge whether it is larger or not. If it is large, the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere is abnormally high, so an alarm is issued in step M04 and the process moves to step M05. If it is not large, the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere is a normal value, so the process is moved to step M06. In step M05, the emission source is manually investigated and identified. When the investigation of the emission source is completed, the process is moved to step M06. In step M06, the number of atmospheric observation stations n_rMIs increased by 1.

For this reason, it takes a large amount of time to identify the emission source, and in some cases, it may not be possible to identify it, which has hindered the realization of prompt guidance and orders for reducing the concentration of chemical substances emitted into the atmosphere. It was.

Conventionally, it has not been possible to predict and calculate the amount of chemical substances emitted from the emission source of the chemical substances from the measured concentration of the chemical substances in the atmosphere at the Atmospheric Observation Station.

FIG. 6 is a configuration explanatory diagram showing the input / output relationship of the conventional system. In the prior art, the measured concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere, the position coordinates of the atmospheric observation station, the chimney altitude and smoke diffusion width of the emission source where the chemical substances are released into the atmosphere, the position coordinates of the emission source, and the emission at the above time. Only the source wind speed and direction were input.

Using these input values, the relationship between the amount of chemical substances emitted from the emission source that releases the chemical substances into the atmosphere and the concentration of the chemical substances in the atmosphere is expressed by an approximate formula, and when a simultaneous equation is created, the emissions are variables. The problem arises that the number of simultaneous equations is less than the number of quantities. Observation points of atmospheric concentration of chemical substances N_rHowever, the number of chemical substance emission sources N_sLess than (N_r<N_s). An example will be described below.

The amount of emissions from the emission source and the concentration value of the chemical substance at the observation point are expressed by the following puff model (linear approximation formula).<maths num="1"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0001.tif" /></maths>

Where Q_s(n_s) Is the emission source n_sEmission concentration, coeff (n_s, n_r) Is the emission source n_sWind speed, wind direction, effective chimney altitude, coordinates relative to the observation point, diffusion width and atmospheric observation station n_rIt is a constant to make the altitude of. At present, the number of observation points for the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere installed in local governments is N._rHowever, the number of chemical substance emission sources N_sLess than (N_r&lt;N_s). The number of simultaneous equations that are constraint equations is N_r, The number of variable chemical concentration is N_sTherefore, the number of simultaneous equations is less than the number of variables.

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example in which the number of conventional atmospheric observation stations is smaller than the number of emission sources. That is, the number of atmospheric observation stations N_r= 2 is the number of emission sources N_sLess than = 5 and the number of simultaneous equations (N)_r) Rather than the number of variables (N)_s) Are many, so the value of the variable cannot be determined.

When the emission amount from the emission source and the concentration value of the chemical substance at the observation point are not expressed by a linear approximation formula like (Equation 1) but expressed by a non-linear formula, the measured concentration of the chemical substance in the atmosphere. , Position coordinates of the atmospheric observation station, chimney altitude and smoke diffusion width of the emission source where chemical substances are released into the atmosphere, position coordinates of the emission source, wind velocity of the emission source at the above time, as long as only the wind direction is input. The problem becomes more complicated, and it is not possible to find a solution for the concentration of chemical substances generated from the emission source.<nplcit num="1"><text>Edited by Osayuki Yokoyama "Atmospheric Environment Simulation" Shiraa Shobo Co., Ltd. Published September 25, 1992 p.31-33</text></nplcit><nplcit num="2"><text>Hiroshi Konno et al. "Nonlinear Planning" Nikkagiren Publishing Co., Ltd. Published January 30, 1987 p.1-7</text></nplcit>

<p> The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and in order to realize prompt guidance and instructions for reducing emission concentration, when the measured concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere shows an abnormally high concentration, the chemical substances in the atmosphere are released. The purpose is to provide a chemical substance emission prediction calculation system and method for predicting the emission source of chemical substances from the emitted emission source and identifying the emission source that causes the abnormally high concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere. To do.</p>

<p> In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is a chemical substance emission prediction calculation system when the chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere measured at an atmospheric observation station shows an abnormally high concentration equal to or higher than a specified standard value. The measured concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere, the position coordinates of the atmospheric observation station, the chimney altitude and smoke diffusion width of the emission source where the chemical substances are released into the atmosphere, the position coordinates of the emission source, the wind speed of the emission source. , Wind direction and input means for inputting the normal emission amount emitted from the emission source during the period when the chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere measured in advance by the Atmospheric Observation Station does not show an abnormally high concentration, and the chemical substance in the atmosphere. It is equipped with an output means that outputs the amount of chemical substances released from the emission source at the time of abnormality during the period when the concentration shows an abnormally high concentration, and is the square of the emission source (normal emission amount-emission amount at the time of abnormality). It is characterized by identifying the emission source that causes the abnormally high concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere by finding the solution that minimizes the sum of.</p><p> The present invention is also characterized in that, in the chemical substance emission prediction calculation system, the average emission data of the emission source of the chemical substance notified by law / regulation is used as the normal emission data of the chemical substance to be input. Is what you do.</p><p> Further, the present invention is the average emission data obtained by statistically processing the measured value of the chemical substance emission of the emission source as the normal emission data of the chemical substance to be input in the chemical substance emission prediction calculation system. Is characterized by using.</p><p> Further, the present invention is a method for predicting and calculating chemical substance emissions in the atmosphere when the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere measured at an atmospheric observation station shows an abnormally high concentration equal to or higher than a predetermined reference value. Measurement concentration of chemical substances, position coordinates of atmospheric observation station, chimney altitude and smoke diffusion width of emission source where chemical substances are released into the atmosphere, position coordinates of emission source, wind speed of emission source, wind direction, and atmospheric observation During the period when the chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere measured in advance by the station does not show an abnormally high concentration, the normal emission amount released from the emission source is input, and the period when the chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere shows an abnormally high concentration. By outputting the abnormal emission amount of the chemical substance released from the emission source to, and finding the solution that minimizes the sum of the squares of the emission source (normal emission amount-abnormal emission amount), in the atmosphere It is characterized by identifying the emission source that causes the abnormally high concentration of chemical substances.</p><p> The present invention is also characterized in that, in the chemical substance emission prediction calculation method, the average emission data of the emission source of the chemical substance notified by law / regulation is used as the normal emission data of the chemical substance to be input. To do.</p><p> Further, the present invention is the average emission data obtained by statistically processing the measured value of the chemical substance emission of the emission source as the normal emission data of the chemical substance to be input in the chemical substance emission prediction calculation method. Is characterized by using.</p>

<p> The chemical substance emission prediction calculation system and method of the present invention can predict and calculate the emission concentration from the emission source by inputting the normal concentration of the chemical substance in the atmosphere, and can determine the time required to identify the emission source. Since it can be reduced from the current level, it is possible to quickly realize instructions and orders for reducing the emission concentration.</p>

Hereinafter, examples of embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a configuration explanatory diagram showing a chemical substance emission prediction calculation system according to an embodiment of the present invention. That is, the chemical substance emission prediction calculation system 11 calculates the chemical substance emission prediction calculation when the chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere measured at the Atmospheric Observation Station shows an abnormally high concentration equal to or higher than the specified reference value. In the system, the measured concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere, the position coordinates of the atmospheric observation station, the chimney altitude and smoke diffusion width of the emission source where the chemical substances are released into the atmosphere, the position coordinates of the emission source, the emission source An input unit that inputs the normal emission amount emitted from the emission source as input data 12 during the period when the wind velocity, wind direction, and the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere measured in advance by the Atmospheric Observation Station do not show an abnormally high concentration. It is equipped with an output unit that outputs the abnormal emission amount of the chemical substance released from the emission source during the period when the concentration of the chemical substance in the atmosphere shows an abnormally high concentration as output data 13, and the emission source (normal emission amount). -By finding the solution that minimizes the sum of the squares of (emissions during abnormal conditions), it is characterized by identifying the emission source that causes the abnormally high concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere. Here, the amount of emissions during abnormal times and the amount of emissions during normal times are environmental standards.<maths num="2"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0002.tif" /></maths>

When the measured value of the Atmospheric Observation Station does not meet the standard, it is abnormal, and when it is met, it is normal.

As the normal emission data of the chemical substance of the input data, the average emission data of the emission source of the chemical substance notified by law / regulation can be used. Further, as the normal emission amount data of the chemical substance of the input data, the average emission amount data obtained by statistically processing the measured value of the chemical substance emission amount of the emission source can be used.

During the period (normal time) when the chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere measured in advance by the Atmospheric Observation Station does not show an abnormally high concentration, the normal emission amount obtained by statistically processing the chemical substance emission amount emitted from the emission source is input. It is characterized in that it is used as. Along with this, the measurement concentration of chemical substances in the air, the position coordinates of the atmospheric observation station, the chimney altitude and smoke diffusion width of the emission source where the chemical substances are released into the atmosphere, the position coordinates of the emission source, which have been conventionally used, are described above. The wind speed and direction of the emission source at the time are input, and the amount of chemical substances released from the emission source at the time of abnormality is predicted and calculated and output.

In this embodiment, a mathematical optimization method is used to determine the abnormal emission amount having the smallest difference from the normal emission amount at all emission sources. Statistics on normal emissions of chemical substances are based on PRTR data on emission sources, average annual and monthly emissions reported to local governments, and emissions measured independently by each emission source (factory). Obtained by performing a target operation (average calculation).

The problem of finding the amount of chemical substances emitted from the emission source from the measured value of the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere results in a non-linear problem. First, a general nonlinear problem is defined as follows.

Nonlinear programming: f: Rⁿ R¹, g_i: Rⁿ R¹, i = 1, ..., m; h_j: Rⁿ R¹Given, j = 1, ..., l, the constraints gi (x) 0, i = 1, ..., m; hj (x) = 0, j = 1, ..., The problem of minimizing f (x) under l. This is abbreviated as follows in the text.<maths num="3"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0003.tif" /></maths>

In the above, f is called the objective function, and gi (x) 0, i = 1, ..., m; hj (x) = 0, j = 1, ..., l is called the constraint function.

Especially when m = 0,1&gt; 0, problem 1 is written as follows.<maths num="4"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0004.tif" /></maths>

It has long been known that the solution to problem 1'can be obtained by Lagrange's method of indeterminate coefficient. One variable that is suitable now, for example x₁, ..., x_lWhen is selected, the equation hj (x) = 0, j = 1, ..., l is xt = φt (x)_{l + 1}, ..., x_n), T = 1, ..., l, assuming that it can be solved like f (x)₁, ..., x_n) X_{l + 1}, ..., x_nSince it can be expressed as a function of only (problem 1'), x_{l + 1}, ..., x_nIt is possible to convert to an unconstrained optimization problem. Lagrange's undetermined coefficient method is a refinement of this idea, and has been often used for a long time as a method for solving (problem 1') for small-scale problems.

The problem of calculating the abnormal emission amount with the smallest difference from the normal emission amount at all emission sources by inputting the observed value of the chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere can be reduced to (Problem 1'). First, the solution of the problem using the Lagrange method will be explained, and then the system using this method will be explained.

First, a solution method using the Lagrange method will be described. The constraint function will be described. The constraint function can be expressed as follows.<maths num="5"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0005.tif" /></maths>

Q here_s(n_s) Is the emission source n_sIt is the amount of discharge at the time of abnormality. n_rIs an index representing the observation point, 1 n_r N_rMeet. N_rRepresents the number of observation points. The constraint function is N_rThere are one.

coeff (n_s,n_r) Is expressed as follows when using the plume model.<maths num="6"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0006.tif" /></maths>

Here u_s(n_s) Is the emission source n_sChimney high wind speed, σ_sy(n_s) Is the emission source n_sDiffusion width in the y-axis direction, σ_sz(n_s) Is the emission source n_sDiffusion width in the z-axis direction, Y_s(n_s) Is the emission source n_sY-axis coordinates, h_se(n_s) Is the emission source n_sEffective chimney altitude, z_r(n_r) Is the observation point n_rRepresents the height of.

Next, the objective function will be described. Emissions Q that is the closest to normal emissions Q_s(n_s) Is being calculated, so the objective function can be expressed as follows.<maths num="7"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0007.tif" /></maths>

The formula is Q_s(n_s) Is a squared function, so it is guaranteed to have a minimum value. Where Q_{s<u style="single"></u>aver}(n_s) Represents the amount of emissions in normal times.

The problem of calculating the abnormal emission amount with the smallest difference from the normal emission amount at all emission sources by inputting the observed value of the chemical substance concentration in the atmosphere is the objective function of (Equation 2) (Equation 1). Satisfied solution Q under the constraints of_s(n_s) Is to be obtained. Lagrange's undetermined coefficient method is used to solve the problem.

The Lagrange's undetermined coefficient method will be described. First, the Lagrange function will be described. The Lagrange function is as follows.<maths num="8"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0008.tif" /></maths>

Where 2λn_rIs the Lagrange undetermined multiplier. Since the objective function (Equation 2) is guaranteed to have the minimum value as described above, the Q of the Lagrange function (Equation 3)_s(n_s), λn_rFind the first-order partial differential functions for, and λn so that these derivatives are equal to zero_rIf you set, Q at that time_s(n_s) Minimizes (Equation 2).

Q of (Equation 3)_s(n_s) Is the first-order partial differential function equal to zero.<maths num="9"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0009.tif" /></maths>

By solving (Equation 4), the amount of emissions during an abnormality can be expressed as follows.<maths num="10"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0010.tif" /></maths>

Λn of (Equation 3)_rThe equation that puts the first-order partial differential function for is equal to zero is:<maths num="11"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0011.tif" /></maths>

By solving (Equation 6), the following equation can be obtained.<maths num="12"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0012.tif" /></maths>

Item Q of abnormal discharge amount in (Equation 7)_s(n_sBy substituting (Equation 4) for), the following equation is obtained.<maths num="13"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0013.tif" /></maths>

Converting (Equation 9) to the equations of all observation stations yields simultaneous equations (Equation 10).<maths num="14"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0014.tif" /></maths>

(Equation 10) is the variable λn_rThe number of_rThe number of simultaneous equations is N_rSince there are, the variable λn_rThe value of can be determined. Λn determined by (Equation 10)_rBy substituting (Equation 5), the amount of emissions in an abnormal situation Q_s(n_s) Can be obtained.

Next, the system will be described. The system of this embodiment is composed of the following three parts.

(1) Observation point abnormal high concentration detection routine (Fig. 2) (2) Emission calculation routine (Fig. 3) (3) Reduction to unconstrained optimization problem (Fig. 4) (1) is measured by the atmospheric observation station. It is a routine to judge whether the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere is higher or lower than the standard value. If a chemical substance concentration higher than the standard value is observed, the process shifts to the emission calculation routine in (2).

Figure 2 shows the main routine, and all processing starts from M000. The startup time of M000 may be fixed time or arbitrary time. The processing after M010 is the processing to check the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere of all atmospheric observation stations. Variable n that is an index of the observation point in M010_rMSubstitute 1 for. In M020 n_rMIs the number of atmospheric observation stations N_rMJudge whether or not it is as follows. N_rMIf the following, the process is moved to M030. N_rMIf it is not the following, the investigation of all the observation stations is completed, so the processing is moved to M100 and the main routine is terminated. Atmospheric observation station n in M030_rMMeasured concentration C_r(n_rM) Is the reference value C_tJudge whether it is larger or not. Measured concentration C_r(n_rM) Is the reference value C_tIf it is higher, the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere is abnormal. High concentration treatment is transferred to M040. Measured concentration C_r(n_rM) Is the reference value C_tIf it is not higher, the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere is normal, so the treatment is transferred to M050. In M040, the amount of chemical substances released from the emission source at the time of abnormality is predicted and calculated. When the emission amount is predicted and calculated, the processing is transferred to M050. N in M050_rMIs increased by 1.

Figure 3 shows the emission prediction calculation routine in the event of an abnormality. In Figure 3, n_rIs an indicator of the Atmospheric Observation Station, N_rIs the total number of atmospheric observation stations, C_r(n_r) Is the atmospheric observation station n_rMeasured concentration at, Z_r(n_r) Is the height of the atmospheric observation station, n_sIs an indicator of emission sources, N_sIs the total number of sources, u_s(n_s) Is the emission source n_sChimney high wind speed, φ_s(n_s) Is the emission source n_sEmission source wind direction at, u_r(n_r) Is the atmospheric observation station n_rAtmospheric observation station wind speed, φ_r(n_r) Is the atmospheric observation station n_rAtmospheric Observatory Wind Direction, N_r(n_r) Is the atmospheric observation station n_rNumber of atmospheric observation stations in Q_s(n_s) Is the emission source n_sEmissions during abnormal conditions, Q_{s<u style="single"></u>aver}(n_s) Is the emission source n_sNormal emissions, (X_s(n_s), Y_s(n_s)) Is the emission source n_sCoordinates, h_se(n_s) Is the emission source n_sEffective chimney altitude, u_s(n_s) Is the emission source n_sChimney high wind speed, (x_r(n_r), Y_r(n_r)) Is the Atmospheric Observation Station n_rCoordinates, z_r(n_r) Is the atmospheric observation station n_rHeight, σ_sy(n_s), Σ_sz(n_s) Is the emission source n_sDiffusion width (X_s(n_s) Function), C_r(n_r) Is the atmospheric observation station n_rConcentration of.

The process migrated from the main routine M040 starts from SA000. After the start, the process shifts to SA010. Variable n in SA010_rSubstitute 1 for. Next, the process is transferred to SA020. In SA020 n_rIs the number of atmospheric observation stations N_rJudge whether or not it is as follows. N_rIf the following, the process is moved to SA030. N_rIf it is not the following, the investigation of all observation stations is completed, so the processing is moved to SA150. Atmospheric observation station height z in SA030_r(n_r) Is obtained. Then move the process to SA040. Variable n in SA040_sSubstitute 1 for. Move the process to SA050. In SA050 n_sNumber of sources that release chemicals into the atmosphere N_sJudge whether or not it is as follows. N_sIf the following, the process is moved to SA060. N_sIf it is not the following, the investigation of all sources has been completed, so the processing is moved to SA140.

In SA060, the amount of chemical substances released from the emission source during the period when the concentration of chemical substances in the atmosphere measured in advance by the Atmospheric Observation Station does not show an abnormally high concentration is statistically processed._{s<u style="single"></u>aver}(n_s) Is obtained. Next, with SA070, the emission source n_sWind speed u_s(n_s) Is obtained. Next, with SA080, the emission source n_sΦ (n_s) Is obtained. Next, with SA090, the emission source n_sEffective chimney altitude h_se(n_s) Is obtained. Next, with SA100, the emission source coordinates (X)_s(n_s), Y_s(n_s)). Next, at SA110, the emission source n_sDiffusion width σ in the y-axis direction_sy(n_s), Emission source n_sDiffusion width σ in the z-axis direction_sz(n_s) Is obtained. Then coeff (n) on SA210_s,n_r) Is calculated. coeff (n_s,n_r) Is expressed as follows when using the plume model.<maths num="15"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0015.tif" /></maths>

Then at SA130 n_sIs incremented by 1 to move the processing to SA150. If processing is transferred to SA140 at the discretion of SA150, n_rIs incremented by 1 to move the processing to SA020.

If the processing moves to SA150 at the discretion of SA020, the variable n in SA150_rSubstitute 1 for. Next, the process is transferred to SA160. In SA160 n_rIs the number of atmospheric observation stations N_rJudge whether or not it is as follows. N_rIf the following, move the process to SA170. N_rIf it is not the following, the investigation of all observation stations is completed, so the processing is moved to SA190. Generate a constraint expression in SA170. The constraint expression is expressed by the following expression.<maths num="16"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0016.tif" /></maths>

Then in SA180 n_rIs incremented by 1 to move the processing to SA160. N when processing moves from SA160 to SA190_s&gt; N_rJudge whether or not holds. At present, the number of atmospheric observation stations installed in local governments is smaller than the number of emission sources, so the conditional expression of SA190 is satisfied and processing is transferred to SA200. Lagrange's undetermined coefficient method is used in SA200. As a result, the amount of abnormal emissions Q in SA220_s(n_s) Can be determined. The path from SA190 to SA210 is shown to complete the processing procedure. I dare to show the procedure that the conditional expression of SA190 does not hold, but the current local government does not move the processing to SA210. SA210 processing is N_s&lt;N_rIn the case of N_rN from simultaneous linear equations_sThe solution to SA220 is well known because it is a problem of determining the values of individual variables. Finish the post-processing of SA220 and move the processing to M040 of the main routine Fig. 2.

Figure 4 shows a routine that results in an unconstrained optimization problem (Lagrange's undetermined constant method). The processing is transferred from the processing SA200 of the abnormal emission prediction calculation system shown in Fig. 3. The process starts from SB000.

Next, the process moves to SB010, and the objective function is generated. The objective function generated by SB010 can be expressed as follows.<maths num="17"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0017.tif" /></maths>

Next, the process moves to SB020 and the Lagrange function is generated. The Lagrange function generated by SB020 can be represented as follows.<maths num="18"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0018.tif" /></maths>

Next, in SB030, the Q of the Lagrange function generated by SB020_s(n_s) Is equal to zero. The formula is expressed as follows.<maths num="19"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0019.tif" /></maths>

Next, in SB040, if the formula generated in SB030 is expressed in terms of the amount of emissions during an abnormality, the formula can be expressed as follows.<maths num="20"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0020.tif" /></maths>

Next, in SB050, λn of the Lagrange function generated by SB020_rxThe equation that puts the one partial derivative function for is equal to zero is as follows.<maths num="21"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0021.tif" /></maths>

Next, in SB060, the formula generated by SB050 is C._r(n_rx), The following equation can be obtained.<maths num="22"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0022.tif" /></maths>

Next, in SB070, the item Q of the amount of abnormal discharge of SB060_s(n_sBy substituting SB040 for), the following equation is obtained.<maths num="23"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0023.tif" /></maths>

Converting SB070 to the equations for all observation stations yields the simultaneous equations SB080.<maths num="24"><img file="JP2005292041A_D0024.tif" /></maths>

SB080 is the variable λn_rThe number of_rThe number of simultaneous equations is N_rSince there are, the variable λn in SB090_rThe value of can be determined.

Next, in SB110, λn obtained in SB090_rIf the value of is substituted for SB040, the amount of emissions in an abnormal situation Q_s(n_s) Can be obtained.

As described above, another method for identifying the causative emission source is, for example, a method of gradually changing the value of the emission amount of the emission source so as to approach the observed amount at the time of abnormality (the steepest descent). Although there is also a method), the embodiment of the present invention has the following effects.

(1) In the embodiment of the present invention, the calculation time is short because there is no iterative calculation.

(2) An accurate solution can be obtained. That is, the situation where the atmospheric concentration does not meet the environmental standard is caused by the excess of emissions caused by a sudden accident. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that a large number of business establishments (factories) will exceed the reported emissions at the same time. In other words, the excess from the reported emissions of a small number of business establishments is the cause of the abnormality, and other business establishments comply with the reported emissions (the emissions remain normal), so the emissions of Ns of Ns business establishments are Ns-dimensional. This is because it is expected that the abnormal emission coordinate is in the vicinity of the normal emission coordinate when expressed as the coordinates of.

The present invention is not limited to the above embodiment as it is, and at the implementation stage, the components can be modified and embodied within a range that does not deviate from the gist thereof. In addition, various inventions can be formed by appropriately combining a plurality of components disclosed in the above-described embodiment. For example, some components may be deleted from all the components shown in the embodiment.

<figref num="1">It is a block diagram which shows the chemical substance emission prediction calculation system which concerns on embodiment of this invention.</figref><figref num="2">It is a flowchart which shows the observation point abnormal high concentration detection routine which concerns on embodiment of this invention.</figref><figref num="3">It is a flowchart which shows the emission amount calculation routine which concerns on embodiment of this invention.</figref><figref num="4">It is a flowchart which shows the reduction to the unconstrained optimization problem which concerns on embodiment of this invention.</figref><figref num="5">It is a flowchart which shows the procedure of specifying the emission source which has been performed conventionally.</figref><figref num="6">It is a block diagram which shows the conventional chemical substance emission prediction calculation system.</figref><figref num="7">It is explanatory drawing which shows the example which the number of conventional simultaneous equations is less than the number of variables.</figref>

Code description

11 Chemical Emission Prediction Calculation System 12 Input Data 13 Output Data