Flight trajectory prediction with application of environmental conditions

BACKGROUND

0001The present disclosure relates generally to aircraft traffic management, and more specifically, to systems and methods for computing a predicted flight trajectory for an aircraft.

0002In this section, characteristics of so-called "known" trajectory predictors are described. The adjective "known" is used to indicate prior art features known to one or more authors of this disclosure and should not be construed to be a representation concerning any prior art teachings not known to the authors.

0003Known trajectory predictors operate with the limitations of requiring an aircraft performance database to calculate a trajectory. The aircraft performance database itself can present limitations where content is limited or access to the information is limited. Additionally, the accuracy of known trajectory predictors can be inadequate. Some known trajectory predictors do not apply <i>in situ</i> and forecasted environmental conditions to trajectory prediction. Those trajectory predictors which apply environmental conditions typically use forecasted, not current environmental data. Some on-board flight plan systems have the capability to add environmental conditions to their predicted trajectories, but lack a database of current and forecasted environmental conditions. They may be provided a set of forecasted environmental conditions, but often that set is or will be outdated during the flight. Other trajectory predictors do not include knowledge systems to compile and manage data histories or monitor situational awareness of its own functions as evolving patterns for internal or external function use.

0004Thus the accuracy of known trajectory predictors is inadequate at least for the following reasons: (a) the users do not use current aircraft messaging, histories and state data; (b) users only use forecasted environmental data (current environmental observations are not incorporated); and (c) users do not know or anticipate all the pseudo-waypoints associated with a flight. Another distinguishing characteristic is that known trajectory predictors do not have the ability to adapt the output trajectory (e.g., by varying its fidelity) based on the input data.

0005Current trajectories predicted by ground systems are incomplete not only because the flight plan information they are built upon is incomplete, but also because they do not include pseudo-waypoints and associated metadata information, which omission affects the accuracy of the trajectory prediction. Pseudo-waypoints help complete the flight plan. A sequence of waypoints in a flight plan define the lateral projection of the flight route, but do not reflect more gradual transitions between the straight segments connecting waypoints. These gradual transitions entail changes of flight constraints at specific locations termed pseudo-waypoints which are neither listed in the flight plan nor stored in a navigation database.

0006Additionally, none of the trajectory metadata information (such as up-to-date weather information) is used dynamically by ground stations for optimizing flight operations. The fidelity of environmental data applied to current airborne on-board computer predictions and ground station applications is restricted by current methods. Without an accurate current flight trajectory prediction, environmental conditions processors do not know at what predicted locations or at what times to provide which environmental conditions data. Accuracy is lost for this reason and gained when appropriate environmental data is applied to the trajectory prediction.

0007To overcome these shortcomings, current solutions place the burden on the source to transmit its representation of the entire trajectory. These solutions do not address the accuracy issues of replicating the source trajectory nor is it desirable to do so due to the associated communication cost and the additional burden the increased messaging places on an already congested frequency.

0008An adaptive solution is needed that may resemble the originating source format or is based on user configuration declarations, flight parameters, or aircraft state information histories compiled and managed by an embedded knowledge system. Preferably, this solution should operate without an aircraft performance database and should address the accuracy of the trajectory prediction with other methods. Also, the solution must be able to produce multiple outputs (e.g., of varying fidelity) from the same source. Specifically, flight information is received and multiple trajectories are requested as the final output. The reason for this is that each customer has their own trajectory specification requirements. The solution must also ascertain the level of confidence or accuracy that the trajectory predictions must comply with to meet user requirements.

SUMMARY

0009The system disclosed herein generates a predicted flight trajectory using a combination of aircraft state data, flight information, environmental information, historical data or derived flight information from aircraft messaging which can be used for the transmission of environmental data. Furthermore, the generated trajectory prediction is assigned a level of confidence based on fidelity, merit or accuracy. The level of predicted accuracy is based on the number of and sources of the specific information, time, distance or flight phase.

0010Flight information necessary to compute the predicted trajectory is extracted and used, along with aircraft state data, messaging, and their histories, to calculate and derive the predicted trajectory. The improved predicted trajectory provides the greater accuracy needed for aviation applications and the selection of current/forecast environmental conditions, whether transmitted to an airborne platform or used for other ground-based applications. The predicted trajectory includes pseudo-waypoints at flight transitions not readily available in the flight information and also includes the environmental conditions at all waypoint (including pseudo-waypoint) locations. The predicted trajectory is generated in a form which may resemble the originating source or be based on a user configuration, flight parameters, or aircraft state information histories compiled and managed by an embedded knowledge system. The knowledge system is an optional component, dependent on the degree of accuracy required. In the scenario where a predicted trajectory history is utilized (to compute a new predicted flight trajectory), the knowledge system also assesses the trajectory generation for use in situational awareness for internal and external function applications, either in real-time or as post-flight processing.

0011The trajectory prediction generated from the methods and system disclosed hereinafter is completed without the use of any specific aircraft performance database, using the current flight information received and an independent environmental database. This trajectory prediction system also can adapt its output in dependence on a user configuration that is either static or dynamically based on available information or past known flight information. This trajectory prediction system also produces a higher accuracy solution due in part to utilizing <i>in situ</i> weather data (airborne sensor data correlated to locations in a three- or four-dimensional frame of reference) and forecasted environment data and in part due to utilizing techniques for deriving unknown flight data elements. The output solution can also include an identifier distinguishing the level of accuracy of and/or confidence in the trajectory predictions. This identifier is determined based on the original source of the information, current aircraft state, environmental conditions, and the algorithm employed to determine the solution. The identifier could then be used to enable specific optimization maneuvers by an aircraft or to identify additional flight messaging required.

0012The solution proposed herein is a system that can generate a trajectory prediction(s) dynamically or based on rules from a user configuration that addresses the multiple levels of accuracy/confidence required or needed. As an example, the generated trajectory prediction result may be dimensionally limited (i.e., two- or three- versus four-dimensional) based on the user configuration or based on the data fed into the generator. This resultant is assigned a specific level of confidence due to decision rules which are specific to the inputs and current flight environment.

0013The solution proposed herein also addresses the issue of accuracy. Aircraft messaging can be utilized during the generation of a trajectory prediction to increase the degree of accuracy, and thereby increase the level of confidence that the trajectory prediction may hold true. Real-time weather information (<i>in situ</i> weather) embedded in the aircraft messaging may also be utilized for higher-accuracy trajectory predictions. The accuracy of the trajectory prediction may be increased through a number of methods. These methods must consider the cost of each method. In the case of using aircraft messaging, analysis of available aircraft messaging must be conducted to the greatest extent possible before additional messaging is requested. This minimizes the business cost of aircraft communication.

0014The system disclosed herein predicts, with higher fidelity and greater accuracy, a trajectory that resembles the source flight plan system's trajectory. In order to match the source system, components of the source's flight plan/route which are never communicated, such as the pseudo-waypoints, must be derived from aircraft messaging and state data. For greater accuracy, the solution application's trajectory must apply current and forecast environmental conditions in the process of improving the predicted trajectory. These calculations are performed within the constraints of known flight information. In some cases not all flight information is available when trajectory calculations are needed. In these cases, it is preferred that the flight information be derived, calculated, and extracted from available messages, or extracted from an embedded knowledge system, which utilizes past flight information and trajectory objects. Because of business considerations, another option available is to request flight information needed for trajectory object data through additional messaging (via an Airline Operations Center (AOC), Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), data link service provider, etc.).

0015The trajectory prediction solution disclosed herein augments the flight plan/route to portray a more realistic flight path by incorporating pseudo-waypoints; waypoints not listed in the planned route, but located where aircraft maneuvers will occur and which define the flight profile, such as top of climb, top of descent, turn points, and change of aircraft speed, elevation or heading. In addition, the solution of the location of and time of arrival at the pseudo-waypoints is influenced by <i>in situ</i> and forecasted environmental conditions along the trajectory. Therefore, the trajectory predictor solution disclosed herein includes the impact of environmental conditions at all waypoints and pseudo-waypoints.

0016The trajectory prediction solution disclosed herein can be created or updated starting at any point or in any phase in the flight profile, as well as once new information is available (flight information, aircraft state, or environmental condition updates). In addition, the trajectory predictions are modifiable by threshold variables (based on business or other rules) and trajectory prediction results can be updated when these threshold variables change, trajectory format requirements change, or the flight information/route changes.

0017Ongoing situational awareness of both aircraft flight data/state data and resulting trajectories requires data history compilation and knowledge system discovery/processing mechanisms to identify reusable/evolving patterns, in either real-time or post flight. These patterns can be used in both internal and external functions such as (but not limited to) data or object validity and scope refinement, status reporting, function replay, or function restoration/configuration management.

0018Other aspects of the invention are disclosed and claimed below.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

0019<ul id="ul0001" list-style="none" compact="compact"><li><figref idref="f0001">FIG. 1</figref> is a block diagram showing a system for predicting a flight trajectory of an aircraft.</li><li><figref idref="f0002">FIG. 2</figref> is diagram showing some details concerning the components and functionality of the flight trajectory predictor in accordance with one embodiment.</li><li><figref idref="f0003 f0004">FIG. 3</figref> consists of <figref idref="f0003">FIGS. 3A</figref> and <figref idref="f0004">3B</figref>, which taken together form a flowchart showing operations performed by a trajectory object manager incorporated in the flight trajectory predictor depicted in <figref idref="f0002">FIG. 2</figref>.</li><li><figref idref="f0005 f0006">FIG. 4</figref> consists of <figref idref="f0005">FIGS. 4A</figref> and <figref idref="f0006">4B</figref>, which taken together form a flowchart showing operations performed by a trajectory object processor incorporated in the trajectory object manager depicted in <figref idref="f0004">FIG. 3B</figref>.</li><li><figref idref="f0007">FIG. 5</figref> is a diagram representing a simplified trajectory profile.</li><li><figref idref="f0008">FIG. 6</figref> is a block diagram showing a system for dynamic weather band selection which relies on the flight information decoding/encoding scheme of <patcit id="pcit0001" dnum="US13250241B"><text>US Serial No. 13/250241</text></patcit>.</li><li><figref idref="f0009">FIG. 7</figref> is a flowchart showing a process for selecting weather bands based in part on receipt of a flight plan which has been decoded in accordance with one arrangement of <patcit id="pcit0002" dnum="US13250241B"><text>US Serial No. 13/250241</text></patcit>.</li><li><figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref> is a block diagram showing a system for receiving a downlinked flight plan/route message, updating the flight plan/route in that message based at least in part on weather information, and then uplinking a message containing the updated flight plan/route in accordance with one arrangement of <patcit id="pcit0003" dnum="US13250241B"><text>US Serial No. 13/250241</text></patcit>.</li><li><figref idref="f0011">FIG. 9</figref> is a diagram showing operations performed by a flight plan/route processor in accordance with the arrangement depicted in <figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref>.</li></ul>

0020Reference will hereinafter be made to the drawings in which similar elements in different drawings bear the same reference numerals.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

0021The system disclosed herein generates a predicted flight trajectory using a combination of aircraft state data, flight information, environmental information, historical data or derived flight information from aircraft messaging which can be used for the transmission of environmental data. Flight information necessary to compute the predicted trajectory (such as waypoints, their locations, estimated time of arrivals (ETAs) at those waypoints, and fuel remaining) is extracted and used, along with aircraft state data, messaging, and their histories, to calculate and derive the predicted trajectory. The predicted trajectory includes pseudo-waypoints at flight transitions not readily available in the flight information and the environmental conditions at all waypoint (including pseudo-waypoint) locations. Thereafter the generated trajectory prediction is assigned confidence and accuracy levels based on fidelity, merit or reliability.

0022The process/method to create a predicted trajectory(s) for a flight begins with receiving a flight information message. The flight information message may be from an aircraft to a ground station, from a ground source to a ground station, or from an alternate source to an unspecified location (including both source and trajectory solution on airborne platforms, not necessarily the same platform). An aircraft can downlink the flight information in a variety of formats using a variety of methods. It can be transmitted from an aircraft via ACARS, ATN or some other aircraft datalink technology (e.g., broadband satellite IP). From ground sources, the message can be transmitted and received in any unique format specified by the user (e.g., an AOC) or as standardized ground messaging formats (e.g., Type B message format). If used in an airborne system, this process/method could be realized in software or hardware form, and use either air-to-air datalink communications paths or on-board networking, or receive inputs directly from an on-board flight management computer.

0023The system seen in <figref idref="f0001">FIG. 1</figref> optionally comprises a flight information message manager 12, which is a processor that receives an incoming flight information message 10. The flight information message manager 12 may be included for the purpose of optimizing the creation of a flight object, which is a generic container comprising a multiplicity of fields containing flight information, such as elements of flight plans, flight routes, flight trajectories, etc. The flight object may also contain associated aircraft state data such as weight, center of gravity, fuel remaining, etc. If configured, the flight information message manager 12 would process the flight information and pass the flight plan/route to a flight plan/route processor 14. If the flight information message manager 12 is not included in the configuration, the flight plan/route message 10 would be passed directly to the flight plan/route processor 14 for use in creating a flight object.

0024In some cases the flight plan/route processor 14 uses data retrieved from a navigation database 16 to convert (e.g., by decoding and translation) flight plan/route information contained in the incoming message 10 into a flight plan/route comprising a list of waypoints and associated flight information. The elements of the decoded and translated flight plan/route are stored in fields of the flight object (along with aircraft type and equipage), where they are available for use by the flight plan/route processor 14 and a flight trajectory predictor 18. The flight object may reside in a separate processor that manages the flight object.

0025In one example, after the list of waypoints representing the flight plan/route has been derived by the flight plan/route processor 14, it sends a message to the flight trajectory predictor 18 (or other processor) informing the latter that the flight plan/route is available for processing. Alternatively, the flight plan/route processor 14 sends the flight object to the flight trajectory predictor 18. In this alternative example, no message need be sent informing the user that the flight object is ready for retrieval.

0026In the embodiment depicted in <figref idref="f0001">FIG. 1</figref>, the flight trajectory predictor 18 (which is also a processor) receives the flight object containing a list of waypoints making up a flight plan/route from the flight plan/route processor 14 and then calculates an updated predicted flight trajectory 22 based on that flight plan/route, an original flight trajectory (if available), the aircraft type and how it is equipped, current and/or forecast environmental conditions retrieved from an environmental database 20, and other information described in more detail below. However, it should be appreciated that the flight trajectory predictor 18 can receive a flight object from any process.

0027In accordance with one embodiment, the flight trajectory predictor 18 performs the function of creating a complete trajectory or updating an existing one using the most current information received from flight information messages for that flight, adding pseudo-waypoints at flight transitions not explicit in the flight information and selecting the environmental conditions as well as calculating other metadata associated with all waypoint (and pseudo-waypoint) locations. The trajectory prediction process can start at any point in any phase of flight, and modifies its process methods/components as appropriate to the aircraft state and flight information available in messages, known to be available about that phase, known to be available about a future phase, and/or provided by a knowledge system. Flight information available through messaging varies based on the source, aircraft type, configuration parameters, flight state and phase, and other conditions, and trajectory prediction calculations needed may differ by source, aircraft type, state, and phase of flight as well as user configuration information provided. The flight trajectory predictor may receive information on the data source through the user configuration or a knowledge system, which can aid the process in determining which methods/components to use in calculating the trajectory given known information about a flight. All of this information is maintained in a trajectory object (not shown in <figref idref="f0001">FIG. 1</figref>).

0028The flight trajectory predictor 18 adds pseudo-waypoints that are not included in the flight plan/route, if indicated to do so by a user configuration or by the required accuracy level. Pseudo-waypoints are points in the trajectory which are not explicitly part of the actual route, but identify where environmental events or flight maneuvers occur, such as speed, altitude, or heading changes. Pseudo-waypoints are also used where constraints must be met, such as a speed or an altitude constraint. Pseudo-waypoints may also come in pairs for the start and end of a transition, as there must be a gradual change for the maneuver planned. The flight trajectory predictor 18 uses the same pseudo-waypoints in its trajectory as the source's flight plan system uses; however the flight trajectory predictor 18 may introduce more pseudo-waypoints not included in the source's trajectory prediction to improve predicted trajectory accuracy. Some examples of reasons additional pseudo-waypoints may be included by the flight trajectory predictor 18 are environmental conditions, air traffic, temporary flight rules, flight conventions, standard flight practices, or user configuration declarations.

0029The flight trajectory predictor 18 adds environmental data and other metadata for each waypoint and pseudo-waypoint in the trajectory object. As an example of one embodiment, each waypoint and pseudo-waypoint in the trajectory object constructed by the flight trajectory predictor would have an associated position location (latitude, longitude), altitude, phase of flight, estimated time of arrival to the flight destination, fuel remaining, environmental conditions, and metadata used for calculating trajectory data (segment distances, speeds, ETAs at waypoints, etc.). After the application of the environmental data, the trajectory predictions are recalculated. This is a continual iterative process. It is an iterative process because after the environmental data is applied; the trajectory will shift accordingly and new environmental points may have been chosen. If the same environmental points are chosen, the trajectory prediction is at its highest refinement for the given information. Again, this process can be configured to be either dynamic or static. The predicted trajectory(s) 22 is the output of the flight trajectory predictor 18, and can be used as the basis for other calculations, for system or flight status checking or environmental uplink messaging, as a few examples. A system and method for uplinking environmental messages is disclosed, for example, in <patcit id="pcit0004" dnum="US250241A"><text>U.S. Patent Application Ser. No. 13/250241</text></patcit> entitled "Systems and Methods for Processing Flight Information". Further details regarding the system and method of <patcit id="pcit0005" dnum="US250241A"><text>U.S. Patent Application Ser. No. 13/250241</text></patcit> are provided in a self-contained section at the end of this disclosure. The predicted trajectory is stored in the flight object.

0030Referring now to <figref idref="f0002">FIG. 2</figref>, the flight object 24 comprises a flight path or route derived after decoding and translation of a set of flight information by the flight information message manager and/or the flight plan/route processor. The flight object 24 may also comprise the aircraft type, aircraft state data, the source of the information and metadata. The flight object 24 may further comprise an incomplete flight trajectory. Optionally, the flight trajectory predictor 18 can adjust its process based on a user configuration 26, such as setting the trajectory prediction process to include or exclude certain components (components for flight information decoding and translation are examples, as are components specific to calculation methods), past flight histories, or available data.

0031The flight trajectory predictor 18 receives flight object information 24 and can also accept user configuration data 26 to adjust how the predicted trajectory 22 is to be generated. Inside the flight trajectory predictor 18, a trajectory object manager 28 creates or updates a trajectory object template resembling the form the source uses with the flight information that is currently available or which can be derived. The trajectory object 32 may be created when the aircraft is at different phases of flight, and the phase of flight can help the knowledge system 30 (available globally inside of trajectory object manager 28) determine the methods/components or order of components needed to calculate the trajectory. The partially completed trajectory object 32 is then output to a trajectory predictions processor 34.

0032When a trajectory meeting the trajectory type specified cannot be calculated with the available information - both given in the flight object 24 and derived - the trajectory object manager 28 can create a missing elements request 44. This request may include a request for flight information different than currently available or a request for more recent flight information than the current set. This request 44 can be output to a processor, system log, or flight messaging source. However, when a trajectory object 32 has all of the information needed to calculate a full predicted trajectory, the trajectory object is output to the trajectory predictions processor 34 and is also saved in the embedded knowledge system 30.

0033Trajectory object manager function status options are generated from knowledge system 30 and provide, for example, trajectory log modeling, function health "self-situational awareness," and mechanisms to allow for detection of non-normal and abnormal trajectory generation with alert feedback (i.e., status/alerts message 46) outside of the flight trajectory predictor 18, which triggers reprocess (or modified reprocess) opportunities either in real-time (self-healing) or for post-flight analyses. The status/alerts message 46 could also be the result of a combination of security/health features providing the input to and triggers for process protection, attack detection, and restoration of options which can satisfy information assurance mandates.

0034The trajectory object 32 which the trajectory object manager 28 creates or modifies contains all the trajectory elements obtainable using the available flight information. In accordance with a push-type system, the trajectory object 32 is passed to the trajectory predictions processor 34, which uses the information in that trajectory object to compute the metadata needed to create (i.e., calculate) a complete trajectory (operation 38) and apply environmental data (operation 36) to produce a predicted trajectory 22 for the particular flight. The trajectory predictions processor 34 also calculates the levels of confidence and accuracy of the predicted trajectory (operation 42).

0035More specifically, the trajectory predictions processor 34 takes a trajectory object 32 and calculates the metadata for all the trajectory points contained in it. Metadata can include information that is associated with the trajectory which the trajectory object manager 28 does not extract, calculate, or derive. Examples of metadata for a trajectory include the segment distances and headings, altitudes, ETAs, and fuel quantities for waypoints and pseudo-waypoints. The specific metadata to be included (calculated or not) is determined by the user configuration 26. Some points may have already been calculated or received metadata (within the trajectory object manager 28), which may be used instead of recalculating their values, but for points without metadata, or those which have been modified, the trajectory predictions processor 34 performs a series of calculations to complete the trajectory prediction.

0036After metadata has been calculated and inserted, the trajectory object holds a complete trajectory which resembles that of the source of flight information, and the trajectory predictions processor 34 is able now to apply environmental data along the trajectory (operation 36). The environmental conditions for the points in the predicted trajectory can be retrieved from the environmental database 20. The applied environmental conditions affect the performance of the aircraft in flight, especially the speed economy selection of the aircraft and position of pseudo-waypoints. Since the pseudo-waypoints are not fixed in space, their locations may need to be adjusted after the application of environmental data, as well as other flight elements, including but not limited to fuel quantities, altitudes, and ETAs for each of the trajectory waypoints.

0037Since changes in one part of a trajectory can affect the whole trajectory, the prediction process follows an iterative computation method with the application of environmental conditions. <figref idref="f0002">FIG. 2</figref> shows how the trajectory predictions processor 34 first takes in a trajectory object 32 and then calculates the metadata for it, creating a complete trajectory (operation 38). The complete trajectory is needed for the processor to identify what environmental data to pull from the environmental database 20. After the environmental conditions have been applied (operation 36), the trajectory must be recalculated (operation 38) to update its derived pseudo-waypoints, and also recalculate the metadata which would be affected by the changes. The recalculations of the trajectory prediction with reapplied environmental conditions are continued until a determination (operation 40) is made that the predicted trajectory does not require any more additional application of environmental conditions.

0038The trajectory predictions processor 34 then calculates a confidence level and accuracy level for the predicted trajectory based on the quality of information extracted, calculated, and derived (operation 42). These levels may be evaluated for separate sections of the trajectory or for the predicted trajectory as a whole. The level of predicted accuracy is based on the number of and sources of the specific information, time, distance or flight phase. For example, if flight information has to be derived to calculate a trajectory, because the aircraft has not directly transmitted such information, the level of accuracy of the predicted trajectory may be reduced. This reduction in accuracy may influence the "confidence". A reduction in confidence may be used for triggers of other applications to perhaps increase aircraft messaging or request additional information directly. As another example, if a weather front or storm cell is predicted to pass through an area, the confidence in weather predictions for that area decreases and thus the confidence in a trajectory prediction may also diminish. As a further example, if sensor data that provides near real-time weather for the vicinity of that same predicted trajectory is used, the confidence of the trajectory prediction goes back up. After going through the trajectory predictions processor 34, the flight trajectory predictor 18 has a predicted trajectory 22 with associated confidence and accuracy ratings which it may output, in whole or in part, for use by follow-on applications, such as a message constructor (not shown in <figref idref="f0002">FIG. 2</figref>). The predicted trajectory 22 with associated confidence and accuracy levels is also stored in the knowledge system 30.

0039An example of a trajectory object manager process is shown in <figref idref="f0003 f0004">FIG. 3</figref>, which consists of <figref idref="f0003">FIGS. 3A</figref> and <figref idref="f0004">3B</figref>. Referring first to <figref idref="f0003">FIG. 3A</figref>, system security interface options are identified for input validity (operation 50) and access authentication (operation 52), as are required for any networked system, and would be part of a federated/distributed security scheme for all functions/subsystems/devices of the system employing the flight trajectory predictor. If the input is invalid or access is not authorized, the trajectory object manager selects a rejection option.

0040If the flight object is valid and authentic, then the trajectory object initiates the process for generating a trajectory object. To generate a trajectory object 32, the minimum data requirements for the trajectory calculations must be confirmed as available (operation 54 in <figref idref="f0003">FIG. 3A</figref>). The trajectory object manager 28 may receive information about the source of the flight Information and the flight phase; however, if not provided, the trajectory object manager 28 determines the source and flight phase (operation 56 in <figref idref="f0003">FIG. 3A</figref>) from the information that is available in the flight object 24. For example, assume that the trajectory object manager 28 receives a flight object 24 from the flight plan/route processor (item 14 in <figref idref="f0001">FIG. 1</figref>) which contains an aircraft's flight plan, current state data, and tail ID. The source information and aircraft type can be determined from the tail ID according to the user configuration 26. The flight phase can be determined using the state data with the flight plan, comparing the current altitude with the flight plan's cruise altitude and flight schedule, if all are available.

0041The trajectory object manager 28 also identifies the necessary minimum process components needed to build a trajectory prediction that resembles that of the source, desired output trajectory, or the process components to be included or deleted according to user configuration instructions. The user configuration 26 may contain specific rules, conventions, or practices to which the trajectory must adhere. The user configuration 26 may contain a default trajectory format for new or unfamiliar sources; or it may follow rules to infer trajectory types based on flight information content, such as determining whether the source is an aircraft or a ground system. The knowledge system 30 (see <figref idref="f0004">FIG. 3B</figref>) records the trajectory object manager's results for future reference and subsequent use for improving trajectory predictions for other flights.

0042Once the trajectory object manager has the source and aircraft state data, it determines if there is a defined trajectory type for that data (operation 58 in <figref idref="f0003">FIG. 3A</figref>). If the trajectory type is already defined for the source and flight phase provided, then that type will be used (operation 60 in <figref idref="f0004">FIG. 3B</figref>) in conjunction with any user configuration settings 66 applied. If there is no defined trajectory type, the trajectory object manager identifies trajectory types that are possible to create with the available information (operation 62 in <figref idref="f0003">FIG. 3A</figref>). The knowledge system 30 (see <figref idref="f0004">FIG. 3B</figref>) may use heuristics, correlation, learning algorithms, accumulated evidence, existing flight object information, state data/flight phase, and other information to discover and select criteria for possible trajectory types. The knowledge system 30 is capable of updating itself with new data, after that data has been tested for validity and authentication. From the list, a trajectory type 72 is chosen (operation 64 in <figref idref="f0004">FIG. 3B</figref>) which also meets the user configurations, and the required accuracy and confidence levels (items 68 and 70 in <figref idref="f0004">FIG. 3B</figref>) for the trajectory type 72 are recorded. Status/alerts are associated with the trajectory object 32 or predicted trajectory 22. The trajectory type 72 is then sent with the flight information to a trajectory object processor 74, which creates or updates a trajectory object 32 for the particular flight.

0043The process for calculating a trajectory with the known information in accordance with one embodiment is shown in <figref idref="f0005 f0006">FIG. 4</figref>, which consists of <figref idref="f0005">FIGS. 4A</figref> and <figref idref="f0006">4B</figref>. Referring first to <figref idref="f0005">FIG. 4A</figref>, the trajectory object processor 74 determines whether a trajectory can be calculated from the available information (operation 76). This is determined with reference to what specific level of information a user has requested. If all the necessary data for a trajectory is included in the flight object 24, then a trajectory object 32 (shown in <figref idref="f0006">FIG. 4B</figref>) is created immediately and output to the trajectory predictions processor (item 34 in <figref idref="f0002">FIG. 2</figref>). If in operation 76 the trajectory object processor 74 determines there is insufficient data to create a trajectory of the specified trajectory type, elements of the trajectory may possibly be derived. First, the trajectory object processor 74 determines whether derivations have been done previously (operation 78 in <figref idref="f0005">FIG. 4A</figref>). If not, then a derivation method is selected. There are many possible derivation methods for various trajectory elements; some use different sets of flight information, or larger sets of information, and some can be more accurate than others. Based on the available flight information, the required confidence and accuracy levels, and the trajectory type needed, the trajectory object processor 74 determines (operation 90 in <figref idref="f0006">FIG. 4B</figref>) which methods to use in order to derive the needed information for the trajectory object, and at the needed level of confidence and/or accuracy. The trajectory object processor can adjust its calculations depending on the information that is available in a flight, as there can be multiple ways to calculate or derive trajectory elements.

0044<figref idref="f0006">FIG. 4B</figref> illustrates two methods (Method 1 and Method 2) that can be chosen for deriving the trajectory elements based on known information. This illustration represents one possible implementation of the trajectory object manager and is not meant to limit the invention. For the two methods shown in <figref idref="f0006">FIG. 4B</figref>, Method 1 contains more steps than Method 2. In accordance with Method 1, some elements are extracted directly (operation 92) and others are calculated from the available flight information (operation 94). In accordance with Method 2, missing elements are derived from the available flight information (operation 96). While both methods have a "Derive Elements" block, the derivations used may be different between Method 1 and Method 2. Trajectory elements are derived using a combination of conversion formulas, equipage, airspace and aircraft constraints, the knowledge system, and rules of best practice with information gained from current and/or past flight information messages. For cases where more pertinent information is known for the flight, a more accurate derivation may be possible. Operation 90 uses one or more of a knowledge system, extraction, calculation, and derivation to ascertain the trajectory elements that result in a predicted trajectory which best meets the required confidence and accuracy levels given the known information. When data is missing for the most preferred derivation method to be used for a necessary trajectory element, then an alternate method must be used to generate a prediction for that element. While <figref idref="f0006">FIG. 4B</figref> shows only two possible options for computing the trajectory elements, there may be many options when there are multiple elements with multiple methods of prediction. A third example would be using a system of linear equations to determine the position of specific waypoints or all pseudo-waypoints based on previous flight histories. Another option employed by trajectory object processor 74 is to use displacement vectors to determine the needed elements. Once derivations have been completed and new information has been obtained, the process returns to operation 76 (see <figref idref="f0005">FIG. 4A</figref>) which determines whether a trajectory can be calculated with the available information.

0045If still a trajectory cannot be calculated, operation 78 is repeated. This time, because a derivation has been done previously, the process moves to operation 80, which determines whether trajectory retrieval has been done previously. If trajectory retrieval has not been done previously, the process can retrieve other trajectory objects from the knowledge system (operation 82), such as previous flight histories for that particular aircraft, and infer trajectory elements from current versus previous flight performance (operation 84) or from aircraft operating in proximity. The flights used to generate trajectory objects by the knowledge system can be selected from flights flown in similar conditions; examples may include flights flown within a time horizon, or in similar environmental conditions, or in same time period, or those with the same flight path segments. By recording the state and predictions of aircraft for multiple flights for similar procedures and their performance, the trajectory prediction for another aircraft flying a similar procedure can be estimated more accurately according to its state and how it differs from the other flights using hysteresis analysis.

0046For example, for the descent phase of flight, the top of descent is unknown; however, it can be determined accurately from time in the aircraft messaging when in or near descent. So if a top of descent for a trajectory needs to be predicted for a flight, the data from flights of the same aircraft type with similar gross weight, speed, and flying in similar environmental conditions can be gathered and analyzed. Then a top of descent position or some other trajectory elements which may be used to determine the top of descent position, such as a descent flight path angle, may be estimated from interpolation of that data to match the current aircraft's conditions.

0047If the trajectory elements obtained from the hysteresis analysis do not directly contribute to the information needed to calculate a trajectory object, they may allow new information to be derived. Therefore if a trajectory is still unable to be calculated with the accumulated information, the process determines whether more information can be extracted or derived (operation 86 in <figref idref="f0006">FIG. 4B</figref>). If the determination is affirmative, another iteration of derivations can be completed to derive new trajectory elements.

0048If the trajectory object manager 28 determines that more information cannot be extracted or derived (operation 86), then a request for flight information is constructed (operation 88). A missing elements request 44 is then outputted to a processor, system log, or flight messaging source, as previously described.

0049At a minimum, the cruise altitude, climb speed, cruise speed, etc. are needed to predict a gate-to-gate flight trajectory. The minimum required data set is dependent on the flight phase and requested level of accuracy and/or confidence. If the user requests the most accurate trajectory prediction, the minimum information is not enough. The level of accuracy and/or confidence requested by a user dictates what additional information beyond the minimum is needed. This is captured by the user configuration 26 (see <figref idref="f0002">FIG. 2</figref>). For example, a user configuration might specify that an output to User X must have a confidence level Y and/or an accuracy level Z. From Y or Z, it is known that the basic set of information to compute a trajectory is D₁, D₂, ... D_n and must be from a Source A and consist of pseudo-waypoints WP1, WP2, ... WPn. If these basic trajectory elements are not available, the trajectory object processor 74 (see <figref idref="f0005 f0006">FIG. 4</figref>) tries to obtain the missing information by deriving, calculating, extracting and requesting. If it cannot obtain the missing information, the trajectory predictions processor 34 (see <figref idref="f0002">FIG. 2</figref>) will still output a predicted flight trajectory 22 because the minimum data set was available, but the accuracy level and confidence level calculated by the trajectory predictions processor 34 would show a lower level than what was requested, and the user would then know the requirement had not been met. In accordance with one embodiment, the output is always a trajectory prediction, unless the minimum information necessary is not available. The desired output is basic trajectory prediction from the available flight information and/or a trajectory prediction equal to the requested level of accuracy and/or confidence. This means that multiple outputs for various users at varying levels of confidence and accuracy can be generated.

0050An illustration of an idealized trajectory profile is shown in <figref idref="f0007">FIG. 5</figref>. Two pseudo-waypoints that are necessary to define the vertical profile of the trajectory are the top of climb (TOC) and top of descent (TOD). If the aircraft's current state is before the top of climb, a list of basic trajectory elements which may be needed to generate a baseline trajectory with top of climb and top of descent as seen in <figref idref="f0007">FIG. 5</figref> would be the Origin, Destination, Cruise Altitude, Climb Speed, Cruise Speed, and Descent Speed. In some instances these could all be reported in a flight plan; however, often some or all of these elements must be calculated or derived using other available information. The content of the flight information can vary with different data sources, so the trajectory object manager must be able to adjust its method for obtaining trajectory elements based on the available information. Also, elements may need to be derived using information from a combination of different sets of flight information messages, and so the ability to use current flight information with stored past flight information history is required. Depending on the user configuration (which is also dependent on the flight information source), more details and pseudo-waypoints may need to be calculated, requiring different sets of trajectory elements to be known. Examples of these could be pseudo-waypoints that define transitions in the trajectory for speed or altitude constraints that must be met in the climb or descent phases or a step climb or step down during the enroute phase.

0051In the example seen in <figref idref="f0007">FIG. 5</figref>, the aircraft is in the enroute phase of flight. Therefore the top of climb has already been passed, and only the top of descent needs to be derived. The top of descent identifies where the aircraft will transition from flying at its cruise altitude to a descent to the destination. The following is an example of how a top of descent may be derived from flight information messaging.

0052A flight information message is received with the status that the aircraft is a specified time away from its top of descent along with the timestamp indicating when that message was sent. In this example, the method/process uses the current speed of the aircraft, which has been derived from flight information (segment speeds, or an alternate combination of trajectory predictions processor functions), and the aircraft position, extracted from flight information to locate the predicted top of descent (TOD in <figref idref="f0007">FIG. 5</figref>) position at the specified time in the future.

0053Another advantageous embodiment further improves the accuracy of the trajectory prediction by improving the derivation technique itself. For instance, there is error in the derivation of the speed calculations currently used which is due in part to the timestamp in the message received. To reduce error in the top of descent calculations using the derived speed, the speed used must be calculated in the same way as the source's reported speed. This means adjusting the speed to incorporate environmental conditions used by the source. As the flight information message may be routed through multiple relays, the timestamp of the message may be the time it was sent from one of the relays, not the source. So the flight information should contain a separate element indicating the time when the message was sent independent of the timestamp, in order to identify the aircraft position and predict the time/distance to top of descent.

0054However if trajectory prediction is required before flight information detailing a specified time to top of descent has been received (e.g., before departure), an alternative method must be used to estimate the top of descent and then refine it later. One approach to these calculations requires a descent path angle or projected rate of descents, which is derived from the aircraft's cruise speed, descent speed and altitude and descent speed constraints into its destination. Calculations can then extrapolate backwards starting from the last waypoint or pseudo-waypoint with a computed or specified altitude (near the destination). Waypoint altitude calculations are continued until the cruise altitude is reached, signifying the top of descent point. Thus multiple methods must be available for trajectory calculations, depending on the known flight/trajectory information. The example becomes more complex with an aircraft type that provides minimal flight information.

0055The process described for the trajectory object manager represents just one exemplary embodiment and is not intended to limit the scope of the invention. Other embodiments may consult the previous trajectory objects for all derivations to improve confidence levels, as an example of more knowledge system discovery. As flights operate, the derivations of waypoint positions could be filtered with known data of other current or past flights from the trajectory log in real time to make accurate flight predictions for a particular aircraft.

0056Embodiments employing hysteresis of past flight data in trajectory predictions could be done in two ways. One method is to include the additional data in the derivations of the predicted trajectory. This could be done by building a system of equations using all of the available data and calculating a resulting trajectory prediction, such as a pseudo-waypoint location or a speed. Another method is to augment the predicted trajectory already derived with interpolation or projections of the aircraft state onto past flight data. An example of how a final predicted trajectory could be generated from these is through a weighted combination of the predicted trajectory and a projection which fuses the data sets weighted with respect to their estimated accuracy. So, early in the flight the hysteresis data would be relied on more, but closer to the descent the derived values of the predicted trajectory would be weighted more.

0057The trajectory prediction generated from these methods and system is completed without the use of any specific aircraft performance database, using the current flight information received and an independent environmental database. This trajectory prediction system also can adapt its output dependent on a static user configuration or dynamically based on the available information or past known flight information. This trajectory prediction system also produces a higher accuracy solution due in part to utilizing <i>in situ</i> and forecasted environment data and the techniques used to derive unknown flight data elements. The output solution can also include an identifier distinguishing the level of accuracy and/or confidence of the trajectory predictions.

0058Using dynamic prediction methods/processes based on available information as well as an embedded knowledge system, the system is able to adapt to many different sources, both airborne and ground, and generate predicted trajectories which correlate with the source's format, as opposed to having its own independent format.

0059The predicted trajectory solution is dependent on pseudo-waypoints and their locations and metadata. Since the flown flight path and speed is affected by the weather, the pseudo-waypoints can be modified by adding current weather data unavailable to the aircraft's on-board computer.

0060By calculating the trajectory without referring to a performance database, solutions can be found for many different types of aircraft and their equipage. Since all of the pseudo-waypoints and their metadata are extracted, derived, or calculated from the received flight information, only the format, content, and timing of flight information needs to be accommodated by the method/process to extend services for different aircraft, airlines, or equipage. Lastly, the following paragraphs further describe aspects of this disclosure. <ul id="ul0002" list-style="none" compact="compact"><li>A1. A flight trajectory prediction system comprising a processor programmed to perform the following operations: <ol id="ol0001" compact="compact"><li>(a) obtaining flight information and aircraft state information from a flight object;</li><li>(b) determining whether the obtained information is sufficient to predict a trajectory; and</li><li>(c) calculating a predicted flight trajectory in response to a determination by operation (b) that the obtained information is sufficient to predict a flight trajectory, wherein the predicted flight trajectory is calculated using current environmental information.</li></ol></li><li>A2. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein multiple predicted flight trajectories for various users at varying levels of confidence and accuracy are calculated in operation (c).</li><li>A3. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein said processor is further programmed to attempt to derive missing information in response to a determination by operation (b) that the obtained flight information is not sufficient to predict the flight trajectory.</li><li>A4. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein said processor is further programmed to attempt to extract the missing information from flight information retrieved from a knowledge system.</li><li>A5. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein said processor is further programmed to attempt to extract the missing information from a flight information object.</li><li>A6. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein said processor is further programmed to send a request for missing information in response to a failure to determine the missing information.</li><li>A7. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein the predicted flight trajectory is calculated without using aircraft performance data.</li><li>A8. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein operation (c) comprises iteratively computing predicted flight trajectories with the application of environmental conditions.</li><li>A9. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein operation (c) comprises computing metadata for waypoints and pseudo-waypoints of the predicted flight trajectory.</li><li>A10. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein the predicted flight trajectory comprises pseudo-waypoints not identified in the flight information and environmental conditions at those pseudo-waypoints.</li><li>A11. The system as recited in paragraph A1, wherein said processor is further programmed to calculate a level of confidence or a level of accuracy of the predicted flight trajectory.</li><li>A12. The system as recited in paragraph A6, wherein said processor is further programmed to analyze costs associated with aircraft messaging before requesting missing information.</li></ul>

THE METHOD AND SYSTEM OF US SERIAL NO. 13/250241

0061Various digital datalink systems for transmission of messages between aircraft and ground stations via radio or satellite are known, including the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS). ACARS-equipped aircraft have an avionics computer called an ACARS Management Unit (MU), which is directly interfaced to a Control Display Unit (CDU) in the flight deck. There is a datalink interface between the ACARS MU and the flight management system (FMS). This interface enables flight plans and environmental information to be sent from ground to the ACARS MU, which then forwards the received information to the FMS. This feature enables an airline to update a flight plan during flight and allows the flight crew to evaluate new weather conditions or alternate flight plans. Each airline has its own unique ACARS application operating on its aircraft. In addition, since each airline's ground computers are different, the content and format of messages sent by an ACARS MU differs for each airline and each aircraft type.

0062For example, it is known how to provide weather report uplink messages from the ground to an aircraft. In response to an ACARS downlink message from the aircraft requesting environmental information, a weather report is constructed by the ground operator's computer system. This message comprises a header containing an aircraft identifier, security related information and a body (i.e., payload) containing the environmental information. In a similar manner, an FMS of an aircraft may send a flight plan change request, in which case the response would be a message containing the aircraft identifier, security information and an updated flight plan. In either case, a message is sent from the airline's computer system to the flight services ground operator's main computer system via a datalink service. The datalink service provider then transmits the message over its ground network to a remote ground station that broadcasts the message to the aircraft. The MU onboard the aircraft then validates the aircraft identifier and either processes the message or forwards it to the FMS for processing.

0063<figref idref="f0008">FIG. 6</figref> depicts a known system for uplinking weather information to an aircraft. This system processes requests 110 using a data processing system comprising one or more computers or processors. In particular, the data processing system comprises a dynamic weather band processor 112 that is configured to choose climb, cruise, and descent weather that are specific to a particular flight trajectory or flight plan.

0064The dynamic weather band processor 112 can continually evaluate information received in order to dynamically select weather for a given flight plan. Alternatively, dynamic weather band processor 112 may be triggered to evaluate information by receipt of a request 110, push 114, or some other event to dynamically select weather bands for a particular flight plan. Request 110 may be either a weather request 104 initiated by an aircraft 102 or a request 108 initiated by a ground-based operation center 106. Request 110 may include a specific flight plan, which dynamic weather band processor 112 will use to dynamically select weather bands for the specific flight plan in response to request 110. Push 114 may be an automatic push (from the operation center 106) of a flight plan to dynamic weather band processor 112 to calculate a new weather solution before any request is made by an aircraft. As additional illustrative examples, the trigger event may be receipt of updated weather information, a change in a flight plan, or some other suitable event.

0065Dynamic weather band processor 112 may receive information from a number of databases, such as ground weather information 116, aircraft weather information 118, aircraft current state data 120, and aircraft predictions 122. Processor 112 may also receive information directly from a number of aircraft and/or operation centers, such as aircraft 102 and operation center 106 shown in <figref idref="f0008">FIG. 6</figref>.

0066Ground weather information 116 may include, for example, information collected from weather sources, information about weather local to a particular operation center, forecasted weather information for a number of locations. Aircraft weather information 118 may include weather directly reported or derived from a number of aircraft, such as aircraft 102 in <figref idref="f0008">FIG. 6</figref>.

0067Aircraft current state data 122 includes information pertaining to a number of aircraft. Aircraft current state data 122 may include an identifier for an aircraft and current state information about that particular aircraft, such as, without limitation, on-ground, climbing, cruising, descending, altitude, heading, weight, center of gravity, speed, and/or any other suitable state data.

0068Aircraft predictions 124 may include a number of flight plans and associated predictions for the trajectory and weather of an aircraft based on each of the number of trajectories associated with respective flight plans. Aircraft predictions 124 includes aircraft state data predictions associated with a number of points in time based on predicted weather, flight plan, weight of aircraft, aircraft configuration, and/or any other suitable information. Aircraft predictions 124 may include a number of trajectories 126. These flight trajectories are calculated from flight path information provided from either an aircraft or a ground source using flight path restrictions, such as altitude, speed, and/or time, and planned flight events, such as gear extension.

0069Dynamic weather band processor 112 gathers information for evaluation from the above-described sources and passes it to a data filter 130, which outputs filtered information to a selection module 132. Data filter 130 may filter in accordance with filtering rules as is described in more detail in <patcit id="pcit0006" dnum="US20110054718A"><text>U.S. Patent Application Publ. No. 2011/0054718</text></patcit>.

0070Selection module 132 processes the filtered information from data filter 130 and applies selection criteria to an aircraft trajectory received. For example, a trajectory 126 may be received from the aircraft predictions database 128. Selection module 132 uses selection criteria to determine the weather information pertinent to the received trajectory. The selection criteria may include, without limitation, trajectory prediction, atmospheric pressures, temperatures, humidity, wind, events, and number of recipients. Selection module 132 uses the trajectory prediction to predict how the received trajectory may change from its flight plan based on weather information 120 included in the filtered information from data filter 130.

0071Selection module 132 dynamically selects weather bands based on selection criteria associated with request 110 or push 114. The selected weather bands 134 may include a number of altitude weather bands ranked in order of importance and/or impact to the trajectory being considered from request 110. The selected weather bands 134 are then sent to output process 136, which determines how and where selected weather bands 134 should be sent. Output process 136 determines the recipient of selected weather bands 134 and formats them in dependence on the requirements of the recipient. For example, aircraft 102 may be configured to receive standard aircraft communications addressing and reporting system (ACARS) messaging.

0072Selected weather bands 134 may be sent to ground station 106, aircraft 102, or other recipients, such as an air navigation service provider. For example, selected weather bands 134 may be formatted for transmission and sent as a weather uplink 138 to aircraft 102. In another example, selected weather bands 134 may be formatted for transmission and sent as weather message 140 to operation center 106.

0073The above-described process may be initiated by a request from any qualified subscriber of the weather band selection system. In other advantageous arrangements, manual and automatic triggers can be used to reinitialize the process given a new set of conditions, e.g., flight plan modifications. For example, one weather solution may have been computed according to the initial flight path of an aircraft, but the aircrew or a subscriber desires to view the solution using a different flight path before executing that maneuver. A request may be sent with a new proposed flight plan and a new solution may be generated.

0074In an exemplary system, the weather band selection is associated with a flight trajectory 128 (see <figref idref="f0008">FIG. 6</figref>). That trajectory may have a number of associated waypoints for which weather information may be dynamically selected. The weather band selection process may produce a number of associated weather bands which include weather information specific to respective waypoints of the trajectory. The weather information specific to a particular waypoint may include, for example, without limitation, altitude or range of altitudes, temperature, wind direction, wind speed, and/or any other weather information for that waypoint. The weather information provided by weather band selection may be assessed along the known and intended trajectory for the flight plan to determine the impact of the weather on that trajectory.

0075The dynamic weather band selection process may occur while an aircraft is in flight or on the ground. Referring to <figref idref="f0009">FIG. 7</figref>, the process begins by receiving a flight plan (operation 142). The process calculates an initial predicted trajectory having a number of waypoints for the flight plan (operation 144). The process then identifies current and forecasted weather information associated with those waypoints (operation 146). The process identifies aircraft state data and aircraft observed weather information for an aircraft currently on the flight plan (operation 148). Next, the process recalculates the initial predicted trajectory using the current and forecasted weather information and the aircraft observed weather information to form an updated trajectory (operation 150). The process identifies weather information for the updated trajectory (operation 152). The process then selects a number of weather bands for the updated trajectory to form a weather band selection (operation 154). The weather band selection is then included in an uplinked weather report.

0076<figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref> shows a ground-based system for receiving a flight plan/route message from a ground source or downlinked from an aircraft, updating the flight plan/route in that message based at least in part on weather information, and then uplinking a message containing the updated flight plan/route in accordance with one arrangement. The process or methodology begins with receiving a flight information message 156 from an aircraft or a ground source (e.g., an operations center). An aircraft or an operations center can transmit the flight plan/route in a variety of formats using a variety of methods. For example, a flight plan/route message can be transmitted from an aircraft via ACARS, ATN or some other aircraft datalink technology (e.g., broadband satellite IP). From ground sources, the message can be transmitted and received in any unique format specified by the user (e.g., an Aeronautical Operational Control datalink message type) or in a standardized ground messaging format (e.g., Type B).

0077The ground-based system seen in <figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref> optionally comprises a flight information message manager 158, which is a processor that receives an incoming flight information message 156. The flight information message manager 158 may be included for the purpose of optimizing the creation of a flight object, which is a generic container comprising a multiplicity of fields containing flight information, such as elements of flight plans, flight routes, flight trajectories, etc. The flight object may also contain associated aircraft state data such as weight, center of gravity, fuel remaining, etc. If configured, the flight information message manager 158 would process the flight information and pass the flight plan/route to the flight plan/route processor 160. If the flight information message manager 158 is not included in the configuration, the flight plan/route message would be passed directly to the flight plan/route processor 160.

0078In the case of using information retrieved from a navigation database 162, the flight plan/route processor 160 effectively converts (by decoding and translation) the flight plan/route information contained in the incoming message into a flight plan/route comprising a list of waypoints and associated flight information. The elements of the decoded and translated flight plan/route are stored in fields of the flight object, where they are available for use by the flight plan/route processor 160 and a flight trajectory predictor 164. The flight object may reside in a separate processor that manages the flight object.

0079In one example, after the list of waypoints representing the flight plan/route has been derived by the flight plan/route processor 160, it sends a message to the flight trajectory predictor 164 (or other subscriber-operated processor) informing the latter that the flight plan/route is available for processing. Alternatively, the flight plan/route processor 160 sends the flight object to the flight trajectory predictor or other subscriber-operated processor. In this alternative example, no message need be sent informing the subscriber that the flight object is ready for retrieval.

0080In the arrangement depicted in <figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref>, the flight trajectory predictor 164 (which is also a processor) retrieves the sequence of waypoints making up the flight plan/route from the flight object and then calculates an updated predicted flight trajectory based on the flight plan/route, the original flight trajectory, the aircraft type and how it is equipped, and current and/or forecast environmental conditions. A system and method for generating a flight trajectory prediction is described above with reference to <figref idref="f0001 f0002 f0003 f0004 f0005 f0006 f0007">FIGS. 1-5</figref>.

0081The flight trajectory predictor 164 may incorporate or communicate with a dynamic weather band processor of the type previously described with reference to <figref idref="f0008">FIG. 6</figref>. That dynamic weather band processor retrieves current and forecasted weather information associated with the original flight trajectory from a weather database 166. The flight trajectory predictor 164 also identifies aircraft state data and aircraft-observed weather information for the identified aircraft currently flying in accordance with the received flight plan/route. Next, the flight trajectory predictor 164 recalculates the original flight trajectory using the current and forecasted weather information and the aircraft-observed weather information to create an updated predicted flight trajectory with selected weather bands in the flight object.

0082The flight trajectory predictor 164 also causes the dynamic weather band processor (not shown in <figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref>) to select current and forecasted weather information associated with the updated predicted flight trajectory from weather database 166 and then send the selected information to a message constructor 168, as indicated by the dashed arrow in <figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref>. More specifically, environmental information, an aircraft identifier, security information and the positions corresponding to the environmental information go directly from the weather database 166 to the message constructor 168 for inclusion in a environmental information transmission.

0083As part of the trajectory prediction, flight trajectory predictor 164 can add and/or delete waypoints to the flight plan/route that is stored in the flight object, thereby creating a updated flight plan/route. In one example, the flight trajectory predictor 164 then sends a message to the flight plan/route processor 160 informing the latter that the updated predicted flight trajectory and new flight plan/route are available for use. In response to this message, the flight plan/route processor 160 retrieves the list of waypoints in the flight object representing the updated flight plan/route and uses that processed list of waypoints to construct a payload for inclusion in a flight plan/route message for transmission. Alternatively, the flight trajectory predictor 164 can send the flight object to the flight plan/route processor 160.

0084Upon completion of this process, the flight plan/route processor 160 sets a flag or sends a message to message constructor 168 indicating that the new flight plan/route and/or trajectory with selected weather bands are ready for transmission (i.e., uplinking). In another example, flight plan/route processor 160 accesses the latest updated flight plan/route in the flight object and determines an update was made by a subscriber and proceeds to process the updated information.

0085After the trajectory calculations, weather information processing and updated flight plan/route processing have been completed, the message constructor 168 can construct a flight plan/route message with or without a weather update message. In the case of a flight plan/route message, the message constructor 168 first constructs a message header and then constructs a message comprising that header, the flight plan/route payload received from the flight plan/route processor 160 and a cyclic redundancy check. The message is constructed in a message format specified by the message user in accordance with a dynamically settable user configuration stored in a user preferences database. This user configuration specifies which functions or processes are running in parallel, and also defines connections to receive and transmit the data from the processors or databases shown in <figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref>. The user configuration also specifies the behavior of the application. The user message format generally pertains to the order and type of data and usually does not encompass the behavior of the application. The user message format is hard coded in the message constructor's logic or read from a dynamically settable user configuration required by the end user(s). Alternatively, if the user configuration is absent or unavailable, the system dynamically determines how to format the message based on the origin of the request, the type of information, the aircraft type, the airline operating the aircraft or other information. In either case, the message constructor 168 sends the constructed message to a transmitter (not shown) that will transmit the message to the proper address(es).

0086In the case of a weather update message, the message constructor 168 takes selected weather information from the weather database 166 and constructs an outgoing message for the end user(s) in a specified user message format. As part of the message construction process, the message constructor 168 encodes the weather information received from the weather database 166. In the case of a weather update message uplinked to an aircraft, the weather update is reviewed and accepted by the flight crew and then autoloaded into the flight management computer.

0087In the case of an updated flight plan/route message, the message constructor 168 takes the payload data representing the updated flight plan/route from the flight plan/route processor 160 and constructs an outgoing message for the end user(s) in a specified user message format. In the case of an updated flight plan/route message uplinked to an aircraft, the updated flight plan/route is reviewed and accepted by the flight crew and then the flight crew must contact Air Traffic Control to request clearance for the updated flight path.

0088The functionality of the flight plan/route processor 160 in accordance with one exemplary arrangement will now be described with reference to <figref idref="f0011">FIG. 9</figref>. For this example, the flight plan/route processor 160 receives an aircraft flight plan/route message 156 and other flight information 178 from a flight information message manager 158. The flight plan/route processor 160 also retrieves a user configuration 180 and a user message format 182 from a user preferences database. Then the flight plan/route processor 160 performs the functions of decoding and translating the incoming flight plan/route message, the result including a list of waypoints and associated flight information suitable for use in trajectory calculations and weather information processing as previously described. In particular, a new trajectory may be calculated by the trajectory predictor 164 which provides direct-to routings to downstream waypoints in the current flight plan/route, eliminating inefficient dog-legs in the en route phase of flight. The flight trajectory prediction processor may be programmed to take into account weather and air traffic control status (e.g., traffic sequence and flow and airspace constraints).

0089After a new trajectory has been calculated by the trajectory predictor 164, the flight plan/route processor 160 also performs the functions of translating and encoding an updated list of waypoints to construct a payload in a format suitable for inclusion in an updated flight plan/route message. The flight plan/route processor 160 utilizes the same methodology for processing an incoming aircraft message and an incoming ground message. However, while the methodology is the same, the conditions applied during the respective processes vary. The conditions may be modified through a dynamically settable user configuration or hard-coded into the logic. The general principle is that in whatever user message format the flight plan/route data is received, it needs to be decoded and translated before it can be used to determine an updated flight plan/route with or without environmental information.

0090Still referring to <figref idref="f0011">FIG. 9</figref>, an incoming message is decoded by decoder 170 of the flight plan/route processor 160. The decoding scheme is a function of the user configuration and user message format. In a first decoding stage, the decoder 170 parses the message by separating the flight plan/route from other parts of the message. If the message was encrypted, then the decoder 170 will execute a second decoding stage in which the encrypted flight plan/route is decrypted. In the next decoding stage, the decoder 170 pulls (i.e., parses) data out of the flight plan/route and maps that data into applicable attribute fields of the flight object. In the last decoding stage, the decoder 170 converts user defined points such as latitude/longitude, floating waypoints, place bearing distance, or along track waypoints, intersections and airways and flight procedures into associated waypoints by internal computations or by reference to a navigation database (item 162 in <figref idref="f0010">FIG. 8</figref>), which stores navigation information pertaining to waypoints, airports, airways, and procedures and customer information. Information retrieved from the navigation database is again stored in the flight object.

0091For the particular arrangement shown in <figref idref="f0011">FIG. 9</figref>, the navigation information of greatest complexity is airways and flight procedures (e.g., departure and arrival procedures). When an airway or procedure is identified in the flight plan/route message, the decoder 170 uses that information to do a look up in the navigation database to query for additional data. For example, assume that the flight plan/route message identifies a standard instrument departure (SID) procedure, which consists of a number of waypoints or fixes and a climb profile. The decoder 170 uses the identified SID to query information in the navigation database. The navigation database query would return a listing of waypoints and possibly other associated data. All of the returned waypoints would be stored in the flight object.

0092An incoming message translator 172 of the flight plan/route processor 160 then continues the process by translating the waypoints stored in the flight object into a list of waypoints representing a proper flight plan/route. As part of this process, the incoming message translator 172 determines which of these waypoints are applicable and in which order. The correct ordering of the waypoints is determined from the content of the message and adaptive logic guidelines. For example, transition types indicating one method of movement from one point to the next can be derived from the message content. One example of a logic guideline may include, but is not limited to, the required security, FMC operations and limitations, aircraft state, current or predicted flight information, the aircraft type and/or the airline operating the aircraft. Optionally, duplicate or extraneous waypoints, or waypoints that have been passed by the aircraft since the time when the flight plan/route message was received, are generally not included in the final list of waypoints. The end result is a listing of waypoints representing a proper flight plan/route, stored in the flight object.

0093In accordance with one exemplary arrangement, the incoming message translator 172 of the flight plan/route processor 160 then sets a flag or sends a message to the flight trajectory predictor 164 (or other subscriber-operated processor) informing the latter that the flight plan/route is available in the flight object for processing. Alternatively, the flight plan/route processor 160 can send the flight object to the flight trajectory predictor 164 (or other subscriber-operated processor).

0094As part of the trajectory prediction, flight trajectory predictor 164 can add, reorder or delete waypoints to the flight plan/route that is stored in the flight object, thereby creating a new flight plan/route. The flight trajectory predictor 164 then sends a message to an outgoing message translator 174 of the flight plan/route processor 160 informing the outgoing message translator that the updated predicted flight trajectory and new flight plan/route are available for use. In response to this message, the outgoing message translator 174 combines the updated list of waypoints in the flight object to form a new flight plan/route by referring again to the navigation database (not shown in <figref idref="f0011">FIG. 9</figref>). In particular, the outgoing message translator 174 translates sequences of waypoints into airways and flight procedures that are added to the flight object. The outgoing message translator 174 takes into account the aircraft type, aircraft state data and the current location of the aircraft. For example, an identifier may identify multiple waypoints at different locations, and the outgoing message translator 174 will determine which of those waypoints was intended based on the present location of the aircraft and the flight intent trajectory information.

0095The translated waypoint fields in the flight object are then encoded by an outgoing message encoder 176 of the flight plan/route processor 160. More specifically, the encoder 176 parses the translated list of waypoints in the flight object and then encodes the parsed data to construct a payload for inclusion in a flight plan/route message to be uplinked. More specifically, the encoder 76 puts the parsed list of waypoints into the order required by a user-specified flight plan/route message format. The outgoing message encoder 176 will also identify the transition types (e.g., direct to or via). The transition type is crucial to the definition of the encoded outgoing message. It identifies how to transition between the various combinations of waypoints, airways, and procedures such as: waypoints to airways, airways to procedures, or waypoints to procedures. If requested by the user configuration or if the original downlinked message was decrypted, then the constructed payload will be encrypted by the encoder 176. Upon completion of the encoding process, the encoder 176 can either set a flag or send a message to message constructor 168 indicating that the new flight plan/route payload is ready for transmission (i.e., uplinking), or send updated flight plan/route payload directly to message constructor 168. The message constructor 168 then assembles all of the message components and formats the message for the end user.

0096The aircraft identifier and airline identifier in the flight information received by the flight plan/route processor 160 dictate what incoming message decoding/translating scheme should be used or the scheme can be declared in the user format. An instruction regarding what translating/encoding scheme should be used is sent to the outgoing message translator/encoder, as indicated by the arrow connecting blocks 172 and 174 in <figref idref="f0011">FIG. 9</figref>. The outgoing message translating/encoding scheme applied by the flight plan/route processor 160 will be a function of the applied decoding/translating scheme. These schemes take the form of subroutines retrieved from processor memory and executed by the flight plan/route processor 160.

0097For the sake of illustration, the operation of a flight plan/route processor will be described with respect to a particular flight plan of a particular aircraft. In this example, an aircraft flight message is received, such as: FPN/RI:DA:KSEA:AA:KLAX:R:04I:D:SID12:F:ABC.J12..WPT1.V140..W PT9:A:STAR2.TRANS(180).

0098The meaning and ordering of particular symbols and characters appearing in this specific exemplary flight message are dictated by the applicable user specifications and will be different for other flight messages constructed in accordance with different user specifications. Therefore the detailed discussion of this specific exemplary message is not intended to limit the scope of the system, in which the flight plan/route processor can be programmed to handle flight messages in different formats. In this example, the coding is as follows: FPN = Flight Plan; RI = Inactive Route; DA = Departure Airport; AA = Arrival Airport; R = Departure Runway; D = Departure Procedure; F = First Enroute Waypoint; A = Arrival Procedure. In addition, a single period means Via Transition and a double period means Direct To.

0099The route format of this exemplary message is not useable for trajectory and weather calculations. It must be decoded and translated. The conditions applied during decode and translation of an incoming message vary per aircraft type, the aircraft state data which was derived from the flight information, or associated data derived from the route data itself (e.g., leg types).

0100The above incoming aircraft message when decoded would look similar to the following: Route Seattle-Tacoma Airport to Los Angeles airport via runway 04 to standard instrument departure SID12 to en route waypoint ABC then via jet airway J12 to WPT1 then via victor airway V140 to WPT9 then TRANS transition to the standard terminal arrival route STAR2 to runway 18.

0101This initial decode is still unusable for a trajectory calculations and for weather processing. The route must be decoded and translated into a waypoint to waypoint type of route with the associated data (e.g., known leg types, altitude constraints, etc.). Therefore, an additional operation is required in the decoding operation due to the specification of the route consisting of more than waypoint to waypoint routing (i.e., the route contains airways, a STAR, etc.). The SID12 would be expanded to WPTA, WPTB, WPTC, ABC and WPTY. The jet airway J12 would expand to ABC, DEF, GHI, and WPT1. The victor airway V140 would consist of WPT1, WPT7, WPT8, and WPT9. The transition TRANS would consist of only the fix TRANS. The STAR2 terminal arrival route identifies the arrival route into KLAX, which consists of waypoints WPT15, WPT16, WPT17, WPT18 and WPT22.

0102The initial breakdown of each element within the message during decoding would look as follows: <ul id="ul0003" list-style="none" compact="compact"><li>* KSEA → KSEA</li><li>* 04O → RWY04</li><li>* SID12 → WPTA, WPTB, WPTC, ABC, WPTY</li><li>* ABC → ABC</li><li>* J12 → ABC, DEF, GHI, WPT1</li><li>* WPT1 → WPT1</li><li>* V140 → WPT1, WPT7, WPT8, WPT9</li><li>* WPT9 → WPT9</li><li>* TRANS → TRANS</li><li>* STAR2 → WPT15, WPT16, WPT17, WPT18, WPT22</li><li>* 18O → RWY18</li><li>* KLAX → KLAX</li></ul>

0103The final decode of the aircraft message would look like the following list: KSEA RWY04, WPTA, WPTB, WPTC, ABC, WPTY, ABC, ABC, DEF, GHI, WPT1, WPT1, WPT1, WPT7, WPT8, WPT9, WPT9, TRANS, WPT15, WPT16, WPT17, WPT18, WPT22, and KLAX RWY18.

0104The decoded message is then translated. Translation may include the deletion of duplicate or extraneous waypoints or waypoints that have been passed by the aircraft since the time when the flight plan/route message was received. At the completion of this operation, the incoming flight plan/route is processed and the list of waypoints may be used for trajectory, weather or other processing. The decoded and translated flight plan/route might look like what follows, again dependent on the conditions, yet representative of the actual flight: KSEA RWY04, WPTA, WPTB, WPTC, ABC, DEF, GHI, WPT1, WPT7, WPT8, WPT9, TRANS, WPT15, WPT16, WPT17, WPT18, WPT22, and KLAX RWY18.

0105After the trajectory, weather or other processing, the next operation is to translate and encode the trajectory or updated flight plan/route and/or the selected weather bands into an outgoing message for transmission to a user or users. The process of translating the flight plan/route is determined by a user configuration (180 in <figref idref="f0011">FIG. 9</figref>) or hard-coded logic and could involve correlating the list of waypoints to standard instrument departures, airways, standard terminal arrival routes, approach procedures, etc. In another example with a different configuration, the translator may simply output a list of waypoints. Once the outgoing message translation is complete, the outgoing encoder constructs a payload for a flight plan/route uplink message in accordance with the same encoding used to encode the original received message.

0106There are no existing systems which dynamically encode the flight plan/route message for transmission. Also there is no existing solution that performs the decoding/translation of an incoming flight plan/route message. This method provides a new opportunity to decode and translate an incoming flight plan/route message as well as translate and encode it for an outgoing message. This method also provides a capability to perform such processing based on a user configuration which can be dynamically set. Alternatively, if the user configuration is absent or unavailable, the system dynamically determines how to format the message based on the origin of the request, the type of information, the aircraft type, the airline operating the aircraft or other information.

0107While the invention has been described with reference to various embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes may be made and equivalents may be substituted for elements thereof without departing from the scope of the invention. In addition, many modifications may be made to adapt a particular situation to the teachings of the invention without departing from the essential scope thereof. Therefore it is intended that the invention not be limited to the particular embodiment disclosed as the best mode contemplated for carrying out this invention.

0108The method claims set forth hereinafter should not be construed to require that all operations of the method be performed in alphabetical order or in the order in which they are recited.